138
FXUS63 KMKX 182101
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SNOW OVER FOND DU LAC & SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME MINOR & SLUSHY ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES.
- SLIGHT CHANCES (~15-25%) FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EAST.
- TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS.
TIED TO A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 700 MB LEVEL, STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FOND DU LAC
AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK, DYNAMIC COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
HAVING BEEN NOTED ON MOSTLY GRASSY SURFACES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC
COUNTIES, WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR/SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
AFFILIATED WITH BROAD ASCENT FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE, LIGHT
SPRINKLES AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE
FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT AFTER THE DINNER HOUR. CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOL ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: LIGHT SPRINKLES AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE. STEADIER SNOW & RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST OVERLAP OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DGZ SHIFTING OUT OF THESE AREAS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR/SLUSHY ACCUMULATION (~A COUPLE TENTHS) THROUGH 4 PM.
TONIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH, DO
ANTICIPATE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO THE
NORTH OF I-94. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING
LINE, AS AN EARLIER ARRIVAL COULD COMBINE WITH DECREASING SURFACE
WINDS TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
BETTER FOG SIGNALS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, SO HAVE WITHHELD ANY
MENTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. WILL NEVERTHELESS BE MONITORING
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT & ADJUST THE FORECAST IF TRENDS WARRANT.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
SYNOPSIS: SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL PHASING ATTEMPTS RESULTING IN
SLIGHT CHANCES (~15-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE PLENTY
WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN ANY THURSDAY PRECIP, WITH PRELIMINARY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ALL RAIN ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. FOLLOWING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KNOCK READINGS BACK TOWARD
NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND BACK ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 305 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
PRIMARILY MVFR & IFR CATEGORIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL FIELDS, WITH CONDITIONS COLD
ENOUGH FOR -SN IN THE VICINITY OF SBM. -DZ, -RA, AND RELATED VIS
REDUCTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TERMINALS FURTHER SOUTH. GENERALLY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, GRADUALLY TAPERING
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BKN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT MOST AERODROMES THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE, CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT IN THE VICINITY OF SBM,
WHERE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES HAVE BEEN RE-INTRODUCED FOLLOWING 06Z.
DON'T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT THE CLEARING LINE WILL REACH OTHER
TERMINALS, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD
THE CLEARING LINE MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED,
VFR INSERTIONS MAY BECOME NECESSARY NEAR DAYBREAK AT THE I-94
TERMINALS.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN BREEZY EAST WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE LIGHTER FURTHER NORTH,
WHERE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE IS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER ACROSS ALL OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 1004
MB LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ONTARIO-MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DEEPENING TO NEAR 1000 MB OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW'S DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION WILL
RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE WATERS, WHERE 20-25 KT
READINGS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. GALES AREN'T EXPECTED, THOUGH
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES COULD
MIX IN OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LAKE. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
WATERS.
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED
WAVE HEIGHTS IN NEARSHORE ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO MILWAUKEE, AND UNTIL 12 AM CST FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR. DEPENDING ON TRENDS, ADVISORIES
MAY BE ABLE TO EXPIRE EARLY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
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