708
FXUS63 KMKX 192105
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
305 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCES (~10-20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A COOLING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPING THURSDAY. AN ARC OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUD IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, LIMITING
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND HOLDING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. A SPRINKLE (TRACE) OF
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING FROM SAID CLOUDS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WI.
LOW CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWEST BREEZE BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOW 50S (AROUND 6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS). 10-20% PRECIP CHANCES ARE
INCLUDED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION ON ACCOUNT OF THE LOW
STRATUS PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE, MODELS ALLOW FOR ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID PRECIP (IF ANYTHING AT ALL) ON
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE / SATURATION
EXTENDS THROUGH ONLY THE LOWEST 5000 FT AGL OF THE ATMOSPHERE
(TO THE 850MB LEVEL AT BEST), GRADUALLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MILD TEMPERATURES (AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS) AND
QUIET / DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS REMAIN SPLIT
AND MOSTLY ZONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, PREVENTING ANY MAJOR
ASCENT / ACTIVE WEATHER. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR MN
STOPPING IT'S ADVANCE AND ALLOWING ONLY ~10% RAIN CHANCES TO
ARRIVE TOWARDS THE WI/IL BORDER ON IT'S CLOSEST APPROACH.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH RESOLVING HEALTHY
TROUGHING IN THE JET, TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUR WAY. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE PLOTS ALSO
INDICATE A COOLING TREND TO BEGIN MID NEXT WEEK.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 305 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
OVC LOW STRATUS CLOUDS (MVFR CEILINGS) CONTINUE TO ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, AND MAY EVEN LINGER
AT BKN TO OVC COVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL. CEILING HEIGHTS
ARE LIKELY TO DESCEND TO FUEL-ALT MVFR OR IFR LEVELS TONIGHT
FOR EASTERN WI, AND EVEN WORSE (IFR TO LIFR) FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN WI. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FOG POTENTIAL TO NEAR ZERO, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY DRIZZLE
ATTEMPTING TO SATURATE THE LOWER PBL/NBL. LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ONLY AMOUNTING TO A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS LIFT SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT LINGERING MVFR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN 10 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES CONTINUES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT, TURNING SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING BREEZY OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (20
TO 25 KT GUSTS). LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES TRACKING EAST
ACROSS CANADA DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH WINDS VEERING WEST TO NORTHWEST AND DECELERATING
BEHIND IT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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