726
FXUS63 KMKX 201722
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRATUS CLOUDS AND SOME FOG CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING) NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
SWLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE
STRATUS CLOUDS AND SOME FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS
OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF CYCLOGENESIS FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO
HUDSON BAY WITH ITS WEAK, TRAILING COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI TNT. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL
THEN TAKE HOLD TOWARD FRI AM WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 0.20
INCHES. THUS EXPECT TO LOSE THE STRATUS SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN USA JET STREAM WILL
THEN TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FOR FRI-SAT. THE QG DYNAMICS AND OVERALL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH, BUT BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR OVER
FAR SRN WI ON FRI. OTHERWISE A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER
SRN WI WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE
HIGH CLOUD COVER INTO SAT AM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 308 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IS FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAFAYETTE, GREEN, AND ROCK COUNTIES,
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 8 AM CST THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN ARE KEEPING VISIBILITES
HIGHER IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE, WITH VISIBILITIES ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN REMAINING AT 4-5 MILES. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY (VISIBILITIES LOWERED WITHIN THESE DRIZZLE
PATCHES), TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S, WITH SURFACE
WAA BATTLING LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. SOME MODELS HAVE
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S, WHILE OTHERS KEEP TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS 40 DEGREES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT WAA WILL
AT LEAST SERVE TO BRING IN HIGHS IN THE MID-40S, BUT THE WIDE
SPREAD OF TEMPERATURE VALUES MAY REQUIRE UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.
TONIGHT, AS DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN, MID-30S INLAND, AND LOW 30S IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SAT AFTERNOON WITH SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUING. A BAND
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR WITH THE QG LIFT BUT NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
LATE SAT NT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AND WARM THINGS UP A BIT THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER, 500MB CLUSTER MODEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO HINT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WHICH MAY BRING A BOUT OF PRECIP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION.
LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR A MILD PATTERN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK, THUS LOOKING MOSTLY LIKE ANY PRECIP WOULD BE
RAIN AT THIS TIME. AND LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TOWARD THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY, THERE IS A PERSISTING SIGNAL FOR THINGS COOL
DOWN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CHANGES WITH NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEM AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN
HINTS OF PHASING MID-LEVEL TROUGHS.
GEHRING/WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE MI
THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT BUT AREAS OF CIGS BELOW 1 KFT ARE
POSSIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SRN WI, CIGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
UNDER 1 KFT WITH POCKETS OF FOG, WITH CLEARING AROUND OR AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRI. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF FRI.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 308 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TODAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND DEEPENS IN THE HUDSON BAY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING, BECOMING
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THIS
LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND WESTERLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS
THE HUDSON BAY AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LAKE.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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