680
FXUS63 KMKX 220237
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
837 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG & FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY.
- TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 80-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT, LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN THANKSGIVING DAY ONWARD AS
POLAR AIR ARRIVES FROM CANADA.
UPDATE
ISSUED 840 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. ARRIVAL OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 AND US-18 REPORTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES, COMBINED WITH DECOUPLING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, HAVE ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR POST-SUNSET, WITH A SCATTERING OF STATIONS
HAVING FALLEN BELOW FREEZING AS OF 8 PM. ANTICIPATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SEEING TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE LOW-MID 20S BY DAYBREAK. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOWS IN
THE TEENS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO COLD
AIR DRAINAGE. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO FALL STEADILY AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING SURFACE RIDGE,
MAINTAINING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN SURFACE TEMPS AND MOISTURE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. NEVERTHELESS,
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHALLOW & PATCHY FOG IN LOW-LYING SPOTS
ALONG/WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE THROUGH SUNRISE. GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY, WHERE
VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DROP THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A FEW SLICK SPOTS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. SLOW DOWN IF
ENCOUNTERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 248 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VIA HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM MSN
TO MKE AND SWD AS A WAVE TRAIN OF VORTICITY MAXIMUMS TRACK WEST
TO EAST FROM IA TO SRN WI. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE EARLY
IN THE EVENING. THE MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE KS
AND NRN MO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TNT-SAT AM. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER SRN WI THROUGH 15Z SAT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S
FOR TNT.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SAT AFTERNOON WITH SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
ENSUING. A BAND OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR WITH THE QG LIFT BUT
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PASS SAT NT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 248 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MON NT
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL OR SRN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARD IL AND SRN WI. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT
APPROACHES DUE TO A MORE DOMINANT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE NRN JET STREAM. NEVERTHELESS, WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION, FGEN, AND PVA WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.
A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOMINANT UPPER WAVE WILL THEN
TRACK ACROSS NRN WI OR LAKE SUPERIOR EITHER TUE OR WED WITH ITS
POLAR COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE OVER SRN WI TUE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE GRADUAL BUT INCREASE INTO WED AND
THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL FALL
BELOW NORMAL BY THANKSGIVING DAY AND LAST AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 840 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE HIGH'S ARRIVAL WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT,
WITH CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 248 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES LINGERS IN THE HUDSON BAY
AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7
INCHES PROGRESSES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MODEST SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page