813
FXUS63 KMKX 231956
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
156 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.
- 60-80% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COLDER, BLUSTERY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S. BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN
LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS, BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT MOST OF
MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY FOGGY AND DRIZZLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY, DRIZZLE WILL GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI AND IOWA.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AS ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL RAPIDLY DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DAILY HIGHS FOR THE 26TH
LIKELY BEING SET AT MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD STEADY OR
PERHAPS WARM A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL
OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WITH MORNING LOWS ON THANKSGIVING IN THE LOW 20S.
THE BULK OF ANY POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON
THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID, THERE IS A LARGE RANGE OF
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ANY OF THE
PARTICULAR DETAILS. THIS WILL BE A TIMEFRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH POST-
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL INTERESTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 156 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR, BUT HIGHER LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
TIMING AS WELL AS HOW LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL FALL.
CURRENT TAFS ARE INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR
FOG, BUT CEILINGS COULD END UP BEING LOWER. ONCE THESE LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS MOVE IN, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 156 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL TURNS SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES DEVELOPS IN THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 29.6 INCHES OVER MINNESOTA.
TUESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL SURGE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, BRINGING WESTERLY
GALES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BOTH THE OPEN WATERS AND
NEARSHORE.
WESTERLY GALES WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW
PRESSURE FINALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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