825
FXUS63 KMKX 240333 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
- 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 933 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG SPREADING
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE REST OF MONDAY. THE TIMING MAY STILL
BE IN QUESTION FOR ANY FOG, AS WELL AS HOW MUCH FOG MAY OCCUR.
FOR NOW, KEPT PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THESE AREAS UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE FOG IS FOUND.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP SLOW THE RATHER
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES, WITH VALUES REMAINING STEADY OR VERY
SLOWLY RISING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AS
WELL. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REST OF MONDAY
SHOULD SUPPORT THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN TO DEVELOP. HAVE RISING POPS FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT, HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA, MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 WITH THE LOW CLOUDS.
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT (60 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES), AS THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH, AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S. BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN
LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS, BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT MOST OF
MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY FOGGY AND DRIZZLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY, DRIZZLE WILL GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI AND IOWA.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AS ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL RAPIDLY DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DAILY HIGHS FOR THE 26TH
LIKELY BEING SET AT MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD STEADY OR
PERHAPS WARM A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL
OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WITH MORNING LOWS ON THANKSGIVING IN THE LOW 20S.
THE BULK OF ANY POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON
THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID, THERE IS A LARGE RANGE OF
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ANY OF THE
PARTICULAR DETAILS. THIS WILL BE A TIMEFRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH POST-
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL INTERESTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 933 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 1000 TO 2000 FEET AGL AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG OF 2 TO 5 MILES SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO THE REST OF MONDAY. THE TIMING MAY STILL BE IN
QUESTION FOR ANY FOG, AS WELL AS HOW MUCH FOG MAY OCCUR.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL OVERNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO 500 TO 800 FEET AGL MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO 2 TO 5 MILES AT
TIMES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY MONDAY
NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 933 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
30.4 INCHES MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON MONDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.8 INCHES DEVELOPS IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS TO 29.6 INCHES OVER MINNESOTA.
A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 29.3
INCHES, BRINGING WESTERLY GALES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
GALES WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FINALLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC.
BOXELL/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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