464
FXUS63 KMKX 251534
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY, WITH A
DUSTING ELSEWHERE.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 930 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE FOG THIS
MORNING, AREAS EAST OF THE I-39/I-90 CORRIDOR ARE CURRENTLY
LIFTING ABOVE 1/4 SM VISIBILITY, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
IT MAY CONTINUE TO OBSERVE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE CRESTS OF HILLS (CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND AT THE MOMENT).
THIS MORNING'S DRIZZLE HAS LARGELY CLEARED OUT (MOVING EAST OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AS WE SPEAK), THIS WILL JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A
SPRINKLE OF DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. ADDITIONAL RAIN / DRIZZLE
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH ON THE
LATEST CAMS IS AROUND 7-10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
MADISON/JANESVILLE AREAS, AND 10 PM TO 12 AM FOR THE MILWAUKEE /
SHEBOYGAN AREAS. THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION BEGINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS AFD.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE DENSE FOG OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AND/OR EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO THE POST
DAWN HOURS AMID THE WEAK SFC FLOW AND STABLE TO NEUTRAL LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS. WITH THE LOW STRATUS AND SOME LINGERING LIFT,
AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE STATE.
AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT, WITH A
BIT OF A LULL BEFORE TROWAL PRECIPITATION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND
QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLD AIR GROWS DEEPER AS IT GETS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. RATES WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT, LIMITING TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BETWEEN 6AM AND
NOON AND NOON AND 6PM. SNOW IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO BE DRY AND
POWDERY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD DRY AIR
PUSHES THE SNOW RATIO UP TO 15:1.
THE LOW WILL ALSO DRAG A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE
WITH A 60KT 850MB JET EXPECTED ALOFT. THE CAA WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE, AND WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING STARTING AROUND 6AM WITH
EVERYWHERE SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45MPH BY NOON. THESE GUSTS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 6PM BEFORE EASING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 6PM.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BUT PEAK
GUSTS WILL BE 25 TO 33 MPH WHICH IS WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING) WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 30 AND THEN LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS DURING THIS
PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, SO
EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE LAYER LOOKS TOO DRY FOR SNOW, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE,
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE IS PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHTER
NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS AROUND 29. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY PHASED
(TOGETHER) AS THEY CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THE PHASING WAS PREVIOUSLY IN QUESTION, BUT THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL ENSEMBLES PHASING UP THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS UPPER FORCING WILL
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF IT. AN INVERTED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING UP FROM OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. WITH SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING, SNOW
WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DUE TO THIS BROAD LIFT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A
TOTAL AROUND 0.20 INCH. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES
OVER A 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD IF THE FORECAST HOLDS. WHILE THIS SNOW
MAY BE ABLE TO SHOVEL, THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO AVOID MAJOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS.
SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BUT THE FORECAST IS TRENDING DRIER
SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM PHASING AND
EXITING WISCONSIN TOGETHER. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE GFS PRODUCES A SWATH
OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
KEEPS THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 930 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END OVER THE REGION, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES LINGERING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. CEILINGS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN OVERCAST AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND RAIN SHOWERS
ARRIVES THIS EVENING, A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, ALONG WITH GUSTIER WINDS. WINDS VEER WEST TO
NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY, ACCELERATING EVEN FURTHER (GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 KT IN THE FORECAST) WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUING. THOUGH WEDNESDAY'S ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO AROUND 1-2 INCHES, THE COMBINATION WITH
GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. OUR BEST
GUESS IS FOR CLOUD CEILINGS TO REMAIN OVERCAST AND LOW, BUT LIFT
TO FUEL ALT MVFR ALTITUDES INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MINNESOTA/IOWA
BORDER. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT,
TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST AND BREEZY, WITH WINDS STEADILY
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS STRONG MIXING MAY BRING STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE, WITH GALES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD. A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY, BUT GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
DEEPENS.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-
WIZ070 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
STORM WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO
3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
6 PM THURSDAY.
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