276
FXUS63 KMKX 252116
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI FOR WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS COUPLED
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ADVISORY AREA, LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SLICK
SPOTS AND POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY CAUSE IMPACTS TO
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY.
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY / BRIEFLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
LOW CLOUDS, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, AND LIGHT / VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING (7-10 PM CST MADISON AND
JANESVILLE, 9 PM - 12 AM FOR MILWAUKEE / SHEBOYGAN) DELIVERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GRADUALLY UNFOLDS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT), WITH PREDOMINANTLY JUST SNOW FALLING FROM
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
EXTREMELY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY (ENTIRE
REGION), EASILY GUSTING TO 45 MPH, WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT POWDERY SNOWFALL CONTINUES, AMOUNTING TO A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI (FOR WHICH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED). THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS RANGE ARE TYPICALLY
CONSIDERED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE WIND GUSTS AND
POWDERY TEXTURE TO THE SNOW COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING, WITH POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
THE END TIME FOR THE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY,
ON ACCOUNT OF DECREASING WIND GUSTS AND A WEST TO EAST CUTOFF OF
SNOWFALL (THOUGH THIS COULD BE ADJUSTED IF NEEDED). DRY WEATHER
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO THE LOW 20S.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
WINDS WILL COME DOWN FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS A BIT BUT LINGERING BREEZY WINDS FROM THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EVEN FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGHER PRESSURE NUDGES
INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY MORNING WILL ACTUALLY BE CHILLIER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SO DESPITE LOWER WINDS WIND CHILLS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
OTHERWISE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE QUIET
WEATHER WISE.
THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAT HAS
CERTAINLY COME INTO FOCUS A BIT BETTER THOUGH STILL CONTAINING
A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM PRIMARILY INVOLVES THE TRACK AND THE QPF WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
THESE ARE ALL LIKELY BEING HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE PHASING OF
THIS SYSTEM PORTRAYED IN THE MODELS. WHILE EACH MODEL SHOWS
SOMETHING SIMILAR THEY ALL SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE LEAD UP TO THE
EVENT. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE WITH THE TROUGH AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE 2 OR EVEN 3 PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
GENERALLY COMBINE AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR REGION. ON
PIECE OF ENERGY LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN THE PANHANDLE REGION, A
PIECE IN THE DAKOTAS, AND PERHAPS ANOTHER TRAILING PIECE FROM
ALBERTA. THE MANNER IN WHICH THESE INTERACT WILL GREATLY DETERMINE
WHAT WE SHOULD EXPECT TO RECEIVE FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TRENDS HAVE VERY MUCH BEGUN TO SUGGEST SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THIS
EVENT, THE QUESTION BECOMES EXACTLY HOW MUCH AND INTENSE SNOWFALL
GETS. A FAR ENOUGH NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW COULD ACTUALLY YIELD
RAIN FOR A PERIOD, WHEREAS A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK COULD LEAD TO
LARGELY SNOW BUT PERHAPS NOT HIGHER END SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IS THE 'GOLDILOCKS ZONE' WHERE IF THE LOW
TRACK IS RIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE INCREASED CONCERNS FOR STRONG FGEN WITH STRONG INFLUENCE
FROM MIDLEVEL WAA, UPPER LEVEL PVA, PERHAPS SOME JET COUPLING, AND
IMPACTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND CORRESPONDING FRONTS. IN THE
RIGHT SCENARIO WE ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THIS
EVENT AS WELL
CURRENTLY THIS EVENT HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING PERIOD FOR THE GREATEST PERIOD OF SNOW POTENTIAL (THOUGH
THIS CAN STILL CHANGE). WHILE REMAINING UNCERTAIN THERE IS
INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING AND IMPACTFUL SNOW AS MODELS
HAVE AT LEAST DIALED IN SOME OF THOSE PREVIOUS UNCERTAINTIES.
INTO SUNDAY, THERE MAY BE LINGERING SNOW CHANCES ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW AS HIGHER PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINGS TREND DRIER AS HIGHER
PRESSURE SEEMS TO DOMINATE THE LOW LEVELS IN VARIOUS FORMS. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
REGION BUT LIMITED ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY END UP
KEEPING THINGS DRY OVERALL.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS (IFR LEVELS) LINGER INTO TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT, WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS ALONG IT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT), LIKELY ALL SNOW
BY AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND MAY ACCUMULATE A DUSTING OR SO,
WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WI. VERY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (PEAKING
AROUND 40-45 KT GUSTS), AND COUPLED WITH THE POWDERY SNOW
FALLING, COULD LEAD TO CONCERNS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
LEADING TO SLICK PAVEMENT AND POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
(FOR WHICH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED). STAY TUNED
IN CASE THE AREA COVERED IN THIS ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED /
UPDATED.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY) WILL
LINGER AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES APPROACHES PUSHES ACROSS
WI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DEEPENING TO AROUND 29.3
INCHES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT, TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST AND STEADILY
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING STORM FORCE GUST
FOR SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A STORM WARNING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE OPEN WATERS, WHERE WE EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST WAVES ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE. WINDS VEER
DUE WEST BY MID WEDNESDAY, THEN NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW STORM FORCE
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT GALE WARNINGS DO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WIND ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ060...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO
3 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
6 PM THURSDAY.
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