720
FXUS63 KMKX 092114
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AND ICING DUE TO COLD
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BRING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMUMLATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST THROUGH MARQUETTE, GREEN LAKE, FOND DU LAC, AND
WESTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -15 TO -25 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ANTICPATED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL DRIVE A BAND OF HIGHER QPF RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES IN A STRIPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. A BETTER OVERLAP OF THIS QPF AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST GENERALLY NORTH OF I-94 IN OUR AREA, WHILE AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST WILL SUFFER FROM SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN AS
SFC WARM ADVECTION DRIVES TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW/MIX MAY START FIRST IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AROUND 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS
WELL, GIVEN A VERY SLIGHT ON AND OFF WARM NOSE SIGNAL FROM THE
CAMS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ANY LIQUID PRECIPTATION THAT
FALLS WILL ENCOUNTER SOME BELOW FREEZING ROAD TEMPS, WHICH MAY
CAUSE ICING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
PRETTY QUICKLY NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT AS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY ONSET
BETWEEN 5 TO 6PM AND RATES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AS THE CORE OF
THE 850MB FGEN MOVES OVER CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THE BEST RATES OF 0.5 TO 1 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/EAST- CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 9 AND 11PM, LEADING TO A
QUICK 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER MARQUETTE, GREEN LAKE,
FOND DU LAC, AND WESTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. RATES SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER 6AM WEDNESDAY, ACCOUNTING FOR THE REST OF THE SNOW
TOTALS NORTH OF I-94
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/MIX/FREEZING RAIN 9PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA, BEFORE
A DRY SLOT IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES OVER
SOUTHERN WI. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AREA BEFORE EXITING
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND IL, THROUGH 8AM.
CAA WILL THEN KICK IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW WITH TEMPS REMAINING STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE THINGS FEEL CHILLY OUTSIDE, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AMID AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND FGEN SETS UP ACROSS IOWA,
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND, BUT AT
THIS TIME IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON (AND PERHAPS LARGELY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA), WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER CHILLY, WITH READINGS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SWIPE OF SNOW (MAINLY) TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD
AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS, WITH LOWS BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT DEGREE.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 231 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
LOW CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES AROUND 6Z, WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CALM
AROUND KFLD AND KSBM, WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND QUICKLY
COME FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER THE LOW PASSES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM A
KMSN TO KMKE LINE, WITH HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THAT LINE TOWARD
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM MINNESOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
GALES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE LAKE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY GALES
EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE AS THE LOW
PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BRISK WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY
GALES MAY THEN RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069...6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872...5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
TUESDAY TO 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
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