158
FXUS63 KMKX 112049
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
249 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW MAY JUST CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST WI THIS EVENING WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
- LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WI WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN THIS WEEKEND WITH WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM -10F TO -30F LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- NEXT WEEK TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 243 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TROUGH
PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S AND
NIGHTLY LOWS TONIGHT IN SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS EVENING WILL SEE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORK ITS WAY DOWN
THE MAIN TROUGH. WHILE THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THERE STILL WILL BE
A GLANCING BLOW TO SOUTHWEST WI THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS DOWN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS
AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. THESE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
END BY 06Z (MIDNIGHT) TONIGHT.
THEN ANOTHER LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO WORKS ITS WAY
DOWN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE (20-50%) FOR LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. AGAIN WILL BE A QUICK MOVING WAVE
WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH
AHEAD AND ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE SLUG OF MOISTURE LOOKS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DOWN TO THE BORDER.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE
STRONG CAA MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL
SEE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND
EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10F TO -25F INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 243 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
ADVECTING THE COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
BUILDING +1040MB SURFACE HIGH. EXPECTING SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR INLAND SOUTHERN WI WITH SUB ZERO LOWS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
WI BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES, WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF IN BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY RANGING FROM -10F TO AROUND -20F
BEFORE PLUMMETING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TO -20F TO AROUND -30F
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER
EAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING OVERNIGHT WINDS
CHILLS RANGING FROM -10F TO -20F INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE THE FIRST EXTREME COLD HEADLINES OF THE SEASON WITH
THIS BLAST OF BITTER COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND.
FORTUNATELY THIS COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
BACK UP ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 20S.
EVEN MILDER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE PROGGED FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH NBM AND OTHER ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING AROUND TO
ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 243 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIVER OF MVFR CEILING FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
MSN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS
LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS SOUTH TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
GLANCING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. THINKING JVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WHILE MVFR CEILING MAY
CREEP BACK NORTH INTO MSN. MEANWHILE NORTHEAST OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND VARY MAINLY FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THEN EXPECT THEM TO PICK BACK UP
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS MAY ALSO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 243 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS IN FROM THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP BEHIND THE LOW ON FRIDAY
AND MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF WEST TO NORTHWEST GUST AROUND GALE
FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, DUE TO BRISK
CONDITIONS, LOOKING LIKE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND TO
THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE WINDS EASE LATER SUNDAY, BUT
GUSTY WINDS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
AS TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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