816
FXUS63 KMKX 270329
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
929 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI.
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION RAPIDLY
TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES THROUGH MON AM,
BUT AREAS NEAR CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES.
- POLAR AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
- NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STORM FORCE
GUSTS EITHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED 915 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS DENSE FOG REMAINS A CONCERN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH PRIMARILY AROUND
MADISON AND WEST. OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL PASS LATE TNT INTO SAT AM BUT OVERALL THE
STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. WHERE THE STRATUS DOES THIN, THERE
WILL BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE.
SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE FOR SAT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WRN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. THERE MAY BE A HIGHER
TENDENCY TOWARD BREAKING UP THE STRATUS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE.
THE WRN UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPRISE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER REACHING THE ERN DAKOTAS
BY 00Z MON, WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, REACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY THE SAME TIME.
THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER ERN KS AT 12Z SUN WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH WI. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP (30-50% CHANCE) LATE SAT NT THROUGH SUN AM VIA THE LOW
LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION.
THE ECMWF ENS AND THE GEFS AND THEIR 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE
NOW DEEPENING THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH
RAPID DEEPENING SUN NT WHEN IT TRACKS FROM FAR SRN LAKE MI
AROUND 995 MB TO AROUND A 980 MB LOW OVER NRN LAKE HURON FOR MON
AM. GREATER QG LIFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO AN INCH HAS RESULTED
IN RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES INCREASING TO 60-80% FROM SUN AFTERNOON
INTO MON AM. AS THE LOW PASSES, THE MAIN TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. BRISK NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
DURING THIS TIME WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUN NT
THEN LINGERING INTO MON AM OVER ERN WI. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3
INCHES ARE NOW FCST WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
NWLY WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40-45 MPH VIA THE BOMBOGENESIS.
WINTER WX ADVISORIES OR WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN WI. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS BY
SUNRISE MON WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.
SINGLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS TO SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. DECREASING NWLY
WINDS ARE LIKELY MON NT WITH LOWS FROM 7 TO 13 ABOVE.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKES HOLD BEHIND MONDAY'S TROUGH. A COUPLE MODEST CLIPPER
SYSTEMS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE TRACK,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM.
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT QPF NORTH
OF I-94, WHILE THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM LOOKS TO GIVE US A
BETTER SHOT AT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA IF SOLUTIONS ALIGN WITH THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S, BOTH SYSTEMS
WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT SNOW, RATHER THAN ANY MIX OR RAIN. THE NBM
HAS GREATLY MASSAGED POPS TO BE 20% OR LESS FOR BOTH SYSTEMS
TODAY GIVEN THE MORE NEBULOUS AGREEMENT FROM LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.
STILL, GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THE SHORTWAVES FROM THE
GLOBAL MODELS, THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THE CLIPPERS WITH TODAY'S
LONG-TERM FORECAST.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 930 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE ONSET OF THE LOWER END CIGS HAVE LIKELY BEEN DELAYED A BIT
TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO SOME OF THE VSBY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, LIFR
CIGS ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH SOME VLIFR CIGS FURTHER WEST. IN ADDITION, EXPECT VSBYS TO
AT LEAST FALL TO MVFR FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WI EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE SHORELINE. VSBYS MADISON AND WEST
WILL LIKELY BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
QUARTER MILE VSBYS FOR A PERIOD. INCREASING VSBYS FROM WEST TO
EAST. WORST VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVING
VSBYS THEREAFTER. CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
AS WELL POSSIBLY TO VFR THOUGH ONLY TEMPORARY WITH A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOME FOG IS TO BE EXPECTED
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
LAKE MI THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
29.9 INCHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN RETURN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS TO 29.4 INCHES
SUNDAY EVENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI, THEN
DEEPENS TO 28.9 INCHES OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY MORNING.
THE STRONG LOW WILL THEN REACH FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS ON MONDAY. A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
FRAME.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP
HARBOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WAVES BUILD ON PERSISTENT SELY WINDS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6
AM TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO
9 PM MONDAY.
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