718
FXUS63 KMKX 271003
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN.
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY WELL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SAUK TO OZAUKEE COUNTIES NORTHWARD
STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS, AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE REGIONS.
- WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MONDAY.
- POLAR AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STORM FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME
FRAME.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING, WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND IMMEDIATELY
THEREAFTER. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY, WITH
LOW CLOUDS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MESOSCALE MODELING IS SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE) AND THEREFORE GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION/WARM
FRONTOGENESIS REGIME TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED POPS OF 30-40% FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME, AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
BOLT OF LIGHTNING OR TWO IN FUTURE UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OR PERHAPS RIGHT
OVERHEAD SUNDAY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON (EXACT PLACEMENT STILL IN
QUESTION, ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS STRONGLY INDICATE A JUST-TO-THE-
SOUTH SOLUTION). AGAIN, LIGHTNING AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN (MUCAPE UP TO 400
J/KG). TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND PERHAPS THE
LOW 50S ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO DROP. EXPECTING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE COMBINES WITH A NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE, OCCLUDES, AND DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 20S IN A MATTER OF ~6 HOURS, LEADING TO
RAPID FREEZING ON UNTREATED WET ROADS. LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO
NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH, BRINGING WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL SWING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING RAPIDLY, EXPECTING ALL PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE DIRECTLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DRY
SPELL DURING THE TRANSITION. AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90/I-94 STANDING THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING GREATER THAN 2
INCHES (60-75% CHANCE). FROM SAUK COUNTY TO OZAUKEE COUNTY
NORTHWARD, CHANCES INCREASE FOR SEEING GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL (~60% CHANCES). GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH THIS SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL HAS LED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
A 925 MB NORTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH
ON MONDAY MORNING, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH REMAINING GUSTY AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE SNOW CHANCES TAPER OFF ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST AND CUTTING OF A LOW
OVER QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL ESTABLISH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN A CHILLER
STRETCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AT DAYTIME TEMPS IN
THE 20S AND TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS LOWS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALSO ACCOMPANYING THIS PATTERN WILL BE PERIODIC
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH. FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOOKING TO SWING
THROUGH WI LATER TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE CAA SETUP, COULD SEE
A QUICK/GLANCING CHANCE OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WI.
WILL THEN SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MEANDER AND RETROGRADE BACK
TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE, TEMPS LOOK TO FALL EVEN LOWER
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO SUB-ZERO LOWS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECTING EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL. HOWEVER, THIS COLDER STRETCH WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODELS PROGGED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WARMING TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH A PROGRESS/ACTIVE PATTERN.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND LOWERED VISIBILITES INTO THE 3-5 SM
RANGE ARE DOMINANT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, WHILE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 1400 AND 2000 FT DOMINATE FROM THE KETTLE MORAINE
EASTWARD. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW, TRENDS POINT TOWARD THE HIGHER CEILINGS
LINGERING ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE AND LAKE MICHIGAN TERMINALS
RATHER THAN FALLING TO IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS
TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO THE 1500-2000 FT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SPREAD INLAND AND INCREASE, BEFORE AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE BRINGS BACK IFR CONDITIONS AND
PERHAPS SHOWERS OF RAIN DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL, AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EXIT SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
EAST TODAY, WITH MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING BY MIDDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR INCREASING WAVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS SUNDAY EVENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN, THEN DEEPENS FURTHER OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY
MORNING. THE STRONG LOW WILL THEN REACH FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL OPEN WATERS AND NEARSHORE REGIONS. CONFIDENCE IN
STORM FORCE GUSTS HAS INCREASED, AND A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OPEN WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE REGIONS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY AND SHIFT TO BECOME
WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC,
BUT WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060...9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY.
LM...STORM WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM
MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...5 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
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