534
FXUS63 KMKX 272149
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND MAY
DENSE ON A SCATTERED BASIS
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM DODGEVILLE TO PORT
WASHINGTON STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE REGIONS.
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS UP TO 55 MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
- POLAR AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN STORM FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
SUBTLE WARM MOIST ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS SOUTHERN WI AND
A WEEK WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WI/IL BORDER. WITH THE WAA,
FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS ANTICPATED TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE FOG MAY
BECOME DENSE ON A SCATTERED BASIS.
THERE'LL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE DRIZZLE AFTER DAWN TOMORROW
AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE WAA MOVES EAST INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL RAIN MOVES IN DURING THE MID
MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PVA FROM AN
APPROACHING DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CORN BELT
OVERSPREADS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW
MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN WI.
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT PASSES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE MITTEN
OF MICHIGAN STATE. AS THIS HAPPENS, VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DRIVEN BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAUSING VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION. A QUICK
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 6 AND 9PM, WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE
DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PIVOTS AND SINKS
SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY
DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FROM 900 TO 650MB AT TIMES, THE
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY BREAKDOWN THE DENDRITES TO
NEEDLES DURING THE SNOW EVENT, DRIVING DOWN SNOW RATIOS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN END MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST, WITH COLD BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF MONDAY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM DODGEVILLE TO PORT WASHINGTON FROM 6PM
SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE, SNOW
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES, WHILE TOTALS WILL BE LESS
SOUTH OF THIS LINE. BLOWING SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE A CONCERN
EVERYWHERE HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. IMPACTS
WILL BE HEIGHTENED IN THE ADVISORY AREA GIVEN HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 6PM SUNDAY TO 6PM
MONDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN
SOUTHERN WI DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH MAY
OCCUR EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA, WITH MODELS
VARYING ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE, WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE TUE NIGHT, KEEPING HIGHS A
BIT UNDER NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT, BRINING MORE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOKS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA THAN THE TUE WAVE, WITH
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE PER 12Z GUIDANCE.
A COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. WIND
CHILLS MAY DIP TO THE 0 TO -10 RANGE LATER WED NIGHT (NEW YEAR'S
EVE) INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS NEW YEAR'S DAY LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARDS NORMAL SATURDAY, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING THE THE AREA BY LATER SAT OR SAT NIGHT.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DENSE
ON A SCATTERED BASIS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY. AREAS OF
DRIZZLE ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THE ONSET OF THE FOG. FOG WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH 18Z SUN BEFORE RAIN SPREADS OVER THE
REGION AND FOG DISSIPATES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS
THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A QUICK TRANSITION IN THE RAIN
TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 315 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO EASE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES CLOSE TO THE LAKE AND PASSES OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW, VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD LAKE HURON. STORM FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 TO 55 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE PEAK IN GUSTS OCCURING BETWEEN 3AM CST TO 6PM
CST MONDAY. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM 7PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6AM CST
TUESDAY. WHILE GALES SHOULD EASE AFTER 6AM CST MONDAY, BUT
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR TAKE HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEK. CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WIND ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM SUNDAY
TO 6 PM MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063...6 PM SUNDAY
TO NOON MONDAY.
LM...STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM SUNDAY
TO 6 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 9 AM
SUNDAY.
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