383
FXUS63 KMKX 282049
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
249 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED BOLTS OF LIGHTNING POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING THIS
EVENING, WITH ANY UNTREATED SURFACES BECOMING SLICK. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OVER AN INCH EXPECTED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AND WINTER STORMS WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
WI TONIGHT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 2-6 INCHES, GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
- NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED.
- POLAR AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
DENSE FOG HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT HAS
FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR A BIT THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING LIGHTER
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS
SYSTEM CARRIES SIGNIFICANT LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW, STRONG WAA
AND STRONG FGEN WITH THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BOMBS
OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE LATE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE EXPECT A DRY SLOT
TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BUT
POSSIBLY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS THE
FRONT SLIDES IN AND THE STRONG TROWAL SWINGS IN BEHIND IT
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION THAT IS WHEN WE EXPECT WINDS TO REALLY
START TO RAMP UP AS THE LLJ PUSHES OVERHEAD OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EVENING.
THE INCREASING WINDS THIS EVENING AND SNOW HAVE LEAD US TO ISSUE
A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI, AS WELL AS A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH PART OR MOST OF MONDAY. QPF FOR THIS EVENT POST
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
WITH SOMEWHERE AROUND A 10-13:1 SNOW RATIO EVENT AVERAGE. MANY
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER SNOW RATIOS BUT THOSE DO NOT REALLY
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND THAT WILL MOST CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN FLAKES.
SO THE FOCUS WITH THIS EVENT BECOMES THE QPF AND SO SNOW TOTALS
ARE LOOKING LIKELY TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE TOWARD CENTRAL WI
AND DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH TOWARD THE WI/IL BORDER. THE
REASON FOR THE ADVISORY/WARNING HAS A LARGE DEGREE TO DO WITH
THE IMPACT OF WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL IMPACT
VISIBILITIES AND CONDITIONS OVERALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF BLIZZARD-
LIKE CONDITIONS. EXPECT DECREASING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO CAUSE
SOME CONCERNS FOR FLASH FREEZING.
IT IS WORTH NOTING A FEW THINGS; THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SOME HIGHER END QPF AND SNOW WITH THIS EVENT
PARTICULARLY TOWARD CENTRAL WI AND THAT IGNORES THE SNOW RATIO
CONCERNS OF BEING TOO HIGH. SO THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SCENARIOS THAT BRING SOME HIGHER SNOW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION, LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN THE HIGHER END WIND POTENTIAL AS WE BECOME
UNSTABLE AND WE START TO TAP INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG LLJ WINDS
ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 60 MPH WINDS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS REALIZED THEN SNOW, ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED AND THESE HIGHER END WINDS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES WOULD BE
EXPECTED. THUS WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING SNOW WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND THUS BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN. THE WIND/WINTER HEADLINES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO END
BY NOON TO THE WEST AND AT 6PM TO THE EAST AS GUSTY WINDS WILL
LINGER TO THE EAST A BIT LONGER.
WINDS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BRINGING APPARENT TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS OVERNIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
BETTER OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, BRINGING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. NBM POPS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 30 TO 45%, BUT MAY INCREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS MODEL
AGREEMENT INCREASES.
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS THIS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH. QPF IS VERY HIT OR MISS, SO BLANKET CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE FRONT.
BEYOND, THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
CIGS BETWEEN 200 AND 500 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STEADY RAINFALL
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THUS PREVENTING CONDITIONS
FROM IMPROVING. FOG HAS BEEN REDUCED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI BUT
REMAINS AROUND A HALF MILE NEAR THE LAKE AND MUCH BETTER FURTHER
WEST THOUGH VSBYS ARE BEING IMPACTED BY RAIN AS WELL. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW (1-3 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, 2-6 INCHES FROM MSN TO SBM
NORTH AND WESTWARD) AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
50 KT ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF GUSTS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT MONDAY, SLOWLY DIMINISHING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH AREAS THAT SEE MORE THAN
2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MAY SEE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR PERIODS WITH 1/4 MILE VSBYS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS,
PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN TO 28.8 INCHES AS IT MOVES
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS DEEPENING OCCURS, A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN,
CAUSING WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS (GALES IN THE
NEARSHORE). GALES SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AROUND 7PM CST TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER THE LAKE. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO START
AROUND 3AM CST AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK OFF SLIGHTLY FROM STORMS TO GALES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
GALES WILL TAPER IN THE NEARSHORE AROUND AFTER 3Z SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE DENSE FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ066 UNTIL 3 PM
SUNDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-
WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM
MONDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...WIZ051-WIZ052...6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM
MONDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069...6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047...6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON
MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-
WIZ065...6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-
WIZ068...6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-
LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM SUNDAY
TO 6 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644...9 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
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