935
FXUS63 KMKX 290201 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
801 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING THIS
EVENING, WITH ANY UNTREATED SURFACES BECOMING SLICK.
- AFTER A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION, SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME
HEAVIER OVERNIGHT.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TOWARD CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ACCUMULATING SNOW OF
2 TO 6 INCHES, STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED, HIGHEST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT,
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE LAKE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
- A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS ALSO EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- POLAR AIR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED 801 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA, FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT STARTING TO RAMP UP AND BECOME GUSTY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RAPID FALL OF TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING, WHICH MAY LEAD TO UNTREATED
SURFACES BECOMING SLICK.
THE RAIN IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WITH A BRIEF
LULL IN PRECIPITATION FROM A DRY SLOT. SNOW HAS ALREADY MADE
ITS WAY EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVIER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE AND THE TROWAL AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA.
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE HALF INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA, WITH LOWER
RATES TO THE SOUTH. THE SNOW CHARACTER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FLUFFY AND POWDERY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING.
NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, POSSIBLY TO 55 MPH NEAR THE LAKE. THIS WILL BRING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WHICH WILL HELP REDUCE VISIBILITY.
THE LOWEST MAY BE TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHERE ONE HALF MILE
OR LESS VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW
RATES AND AMOUNTS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THESE POTENTIAL CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, THE WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR MARQUETTE AND
GREEN LAKE COUNTIES, AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FOND DU LAC
AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE AREA INTO MONDAY, MAINLY FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE WIND ADVISORY ALSO
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY MONDAY, BUT THERE MAY BE LINGERING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IMPACTS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA,
SO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THERE.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
DENSE FOG HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT HAS
FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR A BIT THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING LIGHTER
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS
SYSTEM CARRIES SIGNIFICANT LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW, STRONG WAA
AND STRONG FGEN WITH THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BOMBS
OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE LATE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE EXPECT A DRY SLOT
TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BUT
POSSIBLY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS THE
FRONT SLIDES IN AND THE STRONG TROWAL SWINGS IN BEHIND IT
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION THAT IS WHEN WE EXPECT WINDS TO REALLY
START TO RAMP UP AS THE LLJ PUSHES OVERHEAD OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EVENING.
THE INCREASING WINDS THIS EVENING AND SNOW HAVE LEAD US TO ISSUE
A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI, AS WELL AS A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH PART OR MOST OF MONDAY. QPF FOR THIS EVENT POST
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
WITH SOMEWHERE AROUND A 10-13:1 SNOW RATIO EVENT AVERAGE. MANY
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER SNOW RATIOS BUT THOSE DO NOT REALLY
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND THAT WILL MOST CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN FLAKES.
SO THE FOCUS WITH THIS EVENT BECOMES THE QPF AND SO SNOW TOTALS
ARE LOOKING LIKELY TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE TOWARD CENTRAL WI
AND DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH TOWARD THE WI/IL BORDER. THE
REASON FOR THE ADVISORY/WARNING HAS A LARGE DEGREE TO DO WITH
THE IMPACT OF WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL IMPACT
VISIBILITIES AND CONDITIONS OVERALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF BLIZZARD-
LIKE CONDITIONS. EXPECT DECREASING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO CAUSE
SOME CONCERNS FOR FLASH FREEZING.
IT IS WORTH NOTING A FEW THINGS; THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SOME HIGHER END QPF AND SNOW WITH THIS EVENT
PARTICULARLY TOWARD CENTRAL WI AND THAT IGNORES THE SNOW RATIO
CONCERNS OF BEING TOO HIGH. SO THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SCENARIOS THAT BRING SOME HIGHER SNOW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION, LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN THE HIGHER END WIND POTENTIAL AS WE BECOME
UNSTABLE AND WE START TO TAP INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG LLJ WINDS
ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 60 MPH WINDS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS REALIZED THEN SNOW, ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED AND THESE HIGHER END WINDS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES WOULD BE
EXPECTED. THUS WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING SNOW WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND THUS BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN. THE WIND/WINTER HEADLINES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO END
BY NOON TO THE WEST AND AT 6PM TO THE EAST AS GUSTY WINDS WILL
LINGER TO THE EAST A BIT LONGER.
WINDS WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BRINGING APPARENT TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS OVERNIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
BETTER OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, BRINGING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. NBM POPS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 30 TO 45%, BUT MAY INCREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS MODEL
AGREEMENT INCREASES.
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS THIS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH. QPF IS VERY HIT OR MISS, SO BLANKET CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE FRONT.
BEYOND, THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 801 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE RAIN HAS MOVED MAINLY NORTHEAST OF SHEBOYGAN TERMINAL, WITH
A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE SNOW HAS ALREADY MOVED
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AND SHOULD REACH
MADISON AND JANESVILLE AROUND 9 PM AND THE EASTERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVIER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOWER RATES AND AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD JANESVILLE AND KENOSHA. RATES
UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR OR MORE MAY OCCUR TOWARD SHEBOYGAN,
WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH PER HOUR RATES FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE AREA. SNOW CHARACTER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FLUFFY
AND POWDERY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN WITH THE STRONG WINDS.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALREADY RAMPING UP AND WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE WEAKENING
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, HIGHEST FOR TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY ON NORTH TO SOUTH RUNWAYS. THIS SHOULD BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 MILES WITH THE SNOW, PERHAPS LOWER TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN AND TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE REDUCED VISIBILITY
MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1000 FEET AGL OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
RISING UP TO 2000 FEET AGL MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
SCATTERING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY
DURING THE SNOW SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 MILES, WITH LOWER VALUES AT
TIMES TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SHEBOYGAN. BLOWING SNOW MAY
LIMIT VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 MILES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 801 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 28.8 INCHES AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO
LAKE HURON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS STRENGTHENING
OCCURS, A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN, CAUSING WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE
WINDS.
GALES SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE LAKE. STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE OPEN WATERS. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK OFF
SLIGHTLY FROM STORM FORCE TO GALES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY EVENING, FOR WEST NORTHWEST GALES.
AFTER THE PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS AND GALES, BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LAST LATE INTO THE WEEK.
CMILLER/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WIND ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-
WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...WIZ051-WIZ052 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-
WIZ068 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
LM...STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 AM
TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page