806
FXUS63 KMKX 301800
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1200 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW (0.5 - 1.5 INCH) THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WI WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER ERN
AND CENTRAL WI.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO UNDER 1 INCH. BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE FOR SOUTHWESTERN WI.
- SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS (-5F TO -15F)
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
UPDATE
ISSUED 1200 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW VIA A VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND LOW
TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN WI. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE MANITOBA WILL
QUICKLY TRACK TO EAST CENTRAL WI BY 00Z WED THEN TO THE BORDER
OF LOWER MI WITH OHIO AND NW IN BY 06Z WED. A WNWLY LLJ OF 40-45
KT WILL NOSE SEWD FROM SE MN INTO SW WI AHEAD OF THE UPPER
WAVE; THEREBY ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION OVER ALL OF SRN WI, AND
GENERATING 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER ERN WI. THUS THE BETTER
LIFT AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT QPF (0.1 OR LESS) AND SNOWFALL TO STILL
BE LIGHT AND WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH OF SNOW ACCUM OVER SW WI
TO 1.5 INCHES TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE
THE SNOWFALL AND POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE. THE SNOW WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
01-05Z WED.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
SOME ISOLATED, LINGERING FLURRIES ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
KETTLE MORAINE THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING CHILLY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO
SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER, WILL GRADUALLY SEE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TURN MORE WEST- SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FALL INTO
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER THE SNOW .
MEANWHILE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WORKS ITS
WAY DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE MID-LEVEL DCVA
PAIRED WITH LOW- LEVEL WAA, 35-45KT LLJ, AND A SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ALIGNING WITH A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE, WILL
BRING A ROUND (50-70% CHANCES) OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS AGREE ON A THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WI
AROUND/AFTER 18Z AND EXIT SOUTHEAST BY 03Z-06Z. OVERALL, HREF
AND OTHER CAMS ONLY SUGGEST LIGHTER QPF OF ABOUT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
SLR RANGING FROM 13:1-17:1, LOOKING AT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5- 1.0
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE CWA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FORCING,
COULD NOT RULE OUT SEEING A LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ABOVE AN INCH ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE GIVEN A
20-40% PROBABILITY BASED OFF THE 00Z NBM AS WELL AS THE 00Z EPS
ENSEMBLES. SO COULD SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COMMUTE.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
WEDNESDAY IS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI. WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW PAIRING WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
AGAIN LOOKING AT LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING
TO UNDER AN INCH, BUT BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF WI (SOUTH OF LINE FROM WI DELLS TO
KENOSHA) FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. MAINLY EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
AND PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO WI OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
SINGLE DIGIT TO JUST BELOW ZERO LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE COLDER TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS, IT IS LOOKING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY.
THEN THE WEEKEND IS STILL TRENDING MILDER AS THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY WITH THE INCOMING RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER PATTERN DOES HINT AT BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1200 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, WITH PERIODS OF 1SM -SN,
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL END LATE THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUING
THEN MORE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY. VSBYS WITH THE SNOW
ON WEDNESDAY COULD DROP TO 1-2SM AT TIMES.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1200 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER QUEBEC AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE STRONG LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN
MOVE OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH
WILL AID IN MOVING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
THUS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. MODEST TO BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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