632
FXUS63 KMKX 311536 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
936 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH.
THE BEST CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND/EXCEEDING AN
INCH WILL BE FOR AREAS FROM SAUK COUNTY THROUGH ROCK AND
WALWORTH COUNTIES.
- CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF
THE ONSET OF THE SNOW AS WELL ON THE BACK EDGE, BRINGING MINOR
IMPACTS.
- SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS OF 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 936 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TODAY GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODELS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK, WITH LIGHT SNOW PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
LATE THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
UPSTREAM ARE STARTING AS SNOW.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 405 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN WI AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIGS DOWN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORT-NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY BE
A BRIEF WINDOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW TRANSITION TO SEE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE DGZ SATURATES THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON LOWER SIDE AS UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON HOW QUICKLY IT TAKES TO SATURATE ALONG WITH
WARMER/ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS CREEPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING THIS SNOW ACTIVITY TO BEGIN LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN QPF LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND SLR OF 12:1-16:1. THE BETTER SLUG OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS PROGGED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
LINE FROM WI DELLS TO KENOSHA WHERE ANOTHER 0.5-1.0 INCH OF SNOW
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE BETTER ALIGNMENT OF A SMALL SWATH OF LOW-
LEVEL WAA AND THE BANDS OF 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS PAIRING WITH
THE EDGE OF THE HIGHER PWATS (AROUND 0.5 INCH). WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS
AREA FROM SAUK COUNTY THROUGH ROCK/WALWORTH COUNTY GIVEN THE
TENDENCY FOR BANDED PRECIP TO OVER ACHIEVE. MEANWHILE, WHILE
SOME MODELS DO HAVE THIS SNOW ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL WI, OVERALL TREND LIMITS THIS ACTIVITY UP THAT WAY WITH
A DUSTING TO UNDER AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THINGS DRY OUT ALOFT, BUT LESS CERTAIN AS
MODELS HINT AT A NARROW/BRIEF WINDOW. LASTLY, TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE THIS
NEW YEAR'S EVE, SO SOME IMPACTS TOR TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL AS WE RING IN THE
NEW YEAR WITH TEMPS AROUND THE TEENS AFTER SUNSET AND FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT AS 2026 ROLLS ON INTO SOUTHERN WI. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLDER AIRMASS AND WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -5F TO
-15F INTO NEW YEAR MORNING. OTHERWISE, NEW YEAR DAY WILL BE
DRIER, BUT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 20F TO THE MID TEENS.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 405 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE COLDER TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE IT IS LOOKING DRIER WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT HINT A SMALL
RIPPLE OF MID- LEVEL VORTICITY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT
SNOW.
TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND AS MODEL CONTINUE TO DELAY THE RIDGE FROM MOVING
INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. TEMPS THEN GRADUALLY WARM SUNDAY
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
AND KICKS THE SURFACE HIGH EAST. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES
CONTINUE TO HINT AT BECOMING MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROMINENT WAVE LATER
TUESDAY.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 936 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE PRECIP BEGINS, THOUGH MANY UPSTREAM
OBS ARE STARTING AS SNOW. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 00Z. VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP AS LOW AS 1/2 - 1 SM AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 1 KFT, LIKELY BRIEFLY
DIPPING BELOW THAT AT TIMES DURING THE MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 10-15 TO 1 ARE EXPECTED, WITH
TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH
DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH A CHANCE FOR
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 405 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS BACK INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION. EXTENDING OFF OF
THIS LOW IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
BEHIND IT INTO THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING A FEW GALES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING, BUT
THIS WINDOW LOOKS BRIEF. THUS HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY GALE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT
INTO NEW YEARS DAY. THEN WINDS SLOWLY LESSEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 AM
THURSDAY.
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