196
FXUS63 KMKX 021631
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1031 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TOWARD CENTRAL WI SATURDAY.
- A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT THIS AREA OF SNOW COULD EXPAND TO LARGER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- POLAR AIR TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A SFC
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FOR TNT-SAT DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM NE TO THE SRN OHIO VALLEY.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, A COUPLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL TRACK
ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL WI ON SAT, WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE TO
FOLLOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NE TO EAST CENTRAL WI WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
LOCATIONS TOWARD CENTRAL WI. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER WI LATE SAT NT INTO SUN AM WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 200 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AND PUSHING IN OVERHEAD THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS START TO
BREAK UP A BIT AND DISSIPATE. A PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WE SHOULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS PUSH BACK IN TONIGHT WITH 500MB MOISTURE SLIDING IN FROM
THE WEST.
THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OVERALL. IN ADDITION THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING THAT MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF WI. SOUTH OF THAT REGION
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME WHILE
TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI THE DRY AIR LOOKS MUCH SHALLOWER WITH
POTENTIAL TO BE OVERCOME A BIT MORE. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BUT
REMAINS UNLIKELY AND EVEN IN THE CASE IT DOES SNOW IT WOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LATER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS SLIDES OUT LIKELY
RESULTING IN CLEARING CONDITIONS CERTAINLY BY THE EVENING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A CLIPPER WILL CROSS NORTHERN WI SUNDAY EVENING, BUT WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO EAST CENTRAL WI AND POSSIBLY
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE IL BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WAY UP, SO THIS WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD ALSO
BE LIGHT RAIN FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN WI.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS WARMEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN WI COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CLOSE TO
THE FREEZING MARK, SO A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE.
PRECIP (RAIN) ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY MAY BRUSH SOUTHEAST WI ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A
TROUGH CROSSING ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A MATTER OF PHASING THAT DETERMINES HOW
MUCH PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN WI. RIGHT NOW, THE GFS PHASES THE UPPER
WAVES AND BRINGS HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.
MODELS DIVERGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT HAVE A SIGNAL FOR A DEEPER LOW
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECWMF (INCLUDING ENSEMBLES) IS SHOWING
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MN
BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES, AND THEN BRING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW SAT NT. THE GFS HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OUT
WEST AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEEPENS THAT LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR SATURDAY.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 315 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THEN LIGHTER
WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 28.9 INCHES CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER HUDSON BAY, WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1
INCHES EXTENDS FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
INTO THIS MORNING.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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