141
FXUS63 KMKX 051615
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1015 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE (~20-40% CHANCES) LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH (MARQUETTE, GREEN LAKE, FOND DU
LAC, AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES).
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED (50-60% CHANCES OR GREATER)
AREAWIDE NEAR & AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. SOME PRECIP COULD BEGIN
AS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF I-94 & US-18.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- BECOMING COLDER & MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES (~40-60%) FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1000 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
WARM FRONT SHARPENING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
DEFINITION ALONG ITS EASTERN EXTENT THROUGH TODAY, AND EXPECT TO
SEE IT SHOW UP IN SURFACE CHARTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHARPENING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION & 925-700 MB WARM ADVECTION INCREASING OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, EXPECT CURRENT CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT BECOMING FAVORED THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO WORK NORTH. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG, AS WELL AS POCKETS OF
FREEZING FOG AND SLICK SPOTS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING. WILL REFLECT LATEST THINKING IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
UPDATE & DISCUSSION.
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING TRENDS REGARDING INCREASING PRECIP
POTENTIAL FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE FIRST FOCUSING
ALONG A BAND OF 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FAVORED IN THIS BAND OF PRECIP.
DEPENDING ON PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE FGEN BAND, COULD SEE SOME
OF THIS PRECIP TRY TO WORK INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT, WITH LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL
ON SUB-FREEZING SURFACES. WILL THEN SEE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FILL IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 & US-18 WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN, THOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH AT THE OUTSET OF PRECIPITATION. IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH THROUGH TONIGHT, COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOLLOWING SUNRISE TUESDAY.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICING WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. GIVEN OVERLAP WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE, THIS
WOULD POSE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING
MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND REFLECT LATEST THINKING IN
THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST UPDATE & DISCUSSION.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
STRATUS IS SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHEREVER THE STRATUS (WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 2000 FT) GOES, THERE WILL BE NO FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST WI TOWARD DAYBREAK,
THERE IS A RISK FOR FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP. THE AREA WHERE THIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IS SHRINKING DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN,
AND THE TIME THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR WOULD BE BRIEF. THINKING
MINERAL POINT TO MONROE AND SOUTHWEST HAS THE RISK FOR THE
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHUNTING THAT A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTH CENTRAL
WI TODAY. I AM LESS CONFIDENT IN SOUTHEAST WI FILLING IN WITH
CLOUDS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BEING DEPICTED BY
THE LACK OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TO PREVENT THE LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING ALL THE WAY IN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY OUR CLOUD
COVER, BUT A RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH IS
EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, A NARROW AREA OF 700MB MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
WI ALONG A RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVELS (WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS). A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS IA AND SRN MN THIS EVENING AND CROSS SRN WI
OVERNIGHT. THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE WI/IL
BORDER, AND A SECONDARY AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-600MB
LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI.
THE 700MB FGEN BAND SHOULD DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL WI
LATE THIS EVENING, BUT COULD ALSO BE OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FROM MARQUETTE TO SHEBOYGAN. WITH TEMPS LIKELY BELOW
FREEZING, THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN. THANKFULLY,
THE BAND SHOULD NUDGE A LITTLE NORTHWARD WITH TIME, SO
RESIDENCE TIME OVER THOSE COUNTIES WOULD NOT BE LONG. THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD START PRODUCING PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN WI
CLOSER TO 3 AM, ALTHOUGH EARLIER IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP TYPE WITH
THIS ROUND IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE
SURFACE TEMP. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN MADISON AND AREAS NORTH OF I-94 IF SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST ENOUGH AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE.
PRECIP SHOULD EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP IS POSSIBLE (IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MESO MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETTER HINTS OF THIS THAN THE LARGER SCALE MODELS. NO
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR TONIGHT-TUE MORNING SINCE THE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IF THAT
FGEN BAND SETS UP FARTHER SOUTH, THEN WE WOULD NEED TO CONSIDER
ONE.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT MAY FEATURE SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS LARGELY LOST IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH DECREASING FORCING. IN ANY CASE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH IN
LATER THURSDAY.
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A STRENGTHENING
TROUGH AT 500MB WILL SWING THROUGH. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A LOW
WILL PUSH THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PVA ALOFT FROM A
LEADING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH. THIS PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKELY TO BE LARGELY RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW ON THE
BACKEND AS COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS, MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CLOSE OFF. WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE
EXACTLY IS ANYONE'S GUESS RIGHT NOW BUT THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP
AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM IN THE REGION AND WITH THE COLDER AIR IN
PLACE THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR
AS MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT PHASING CONCERNS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS DEVELOP AND
WHERE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOW THIS UNFOLDS. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT AS MODELS COME TOGETHER
IT COULD EASILY TAKE US OUT OF THE TRACK FOR THESE 2 SYSTEMS OR
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LEVEL OF COLD AIR IMPACTING THESE
SYSTEMS.
THE CLUSTERS SHOW MASSIVE SPREAD WITH DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AND SPEED OF THE TOUGH AND AS OBSERVED IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES OFF. IN ANY CASE IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH MONITORING THESE SYSTEMS AS THERE IS CERTAINLY AN
INCREASED CONCERN FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DEFINITELY HAS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BUT IS ALSO THE LESS
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM AS IT MAY LARGELY BE RAIN. THE UNCERTAINTY
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND THAT SECOND
SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE LARGER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. HOPEFULLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE GET A BIT MORE CLARITY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM MAY
UNFOLD BY ELIMINATING AT LEAST A FEW OF THE NUMBER OF VARIABLES
AT THIS STAGE OR AT LEAST START TO DETECT SOME TRENDS AS RIGHT
NOW VAST CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING RUN TO
RUN.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING BACK IN AT LEAST BRIEFLY
AS RIDGING RETURN BEHIND THE UL TROUGH. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY QUICKLY
SWING BACK THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 952 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MOSTLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING, WITH A FEW SITES (INCLUDING JVL) REPORTING IFR CIGS NEAR
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL009. HOW CIGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL ACT TO KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE 06/09Z FORECAST FOR A RETURN TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE TRENDED BACK TOWARD PREVAILING REDUCTIONS
AT 18Z SHOULD TRENDS WARRANT. FG IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO WORK NORTH TOWARD THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER.
HAVE MAINTAINED MENTIONS IN THE 15Z UPDATE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. FG WILL ACCOMPANY BY LOW CIGS, WHICH
IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO IFR OR LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. -RA OR -FZRA IS
POSSIBLE NEAR SBM LATER THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MOSTLY -RA AT AND SOUTH OF
THE I-94 SITES, THOUGH ADDITIONAL -FZRA CAN'T BE RULED OUT FURTHER
NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP WINDOWS IN
COMING FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AND THE SUBSEQUENT
WAVES ARE COMING DOWN IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WI.
MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOUTHERN TWO NSH ZONES EARLY AND THEN THE
NORTHERN TWO DROP OFF AT 12Z.
WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE LOW WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
TURNING SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOK FOR
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ONE MORE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THE STRENGTH
ON THE LOW IS UNCERTAIN, BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE BACK SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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