907
FXUS63 KMKX 060427
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE (~40-60% CHANCES) IN FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING
THIS EVENING & TOMORROW MORNING IN MARQUETTE & GREEN LAKE
COUNTIES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BETWEEN 9 PM
THIS EVENING AND 9 AM TUESDAY.
- AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SPOTTY LOCATION AND SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94.
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE (~20-30% CHANCES) TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS EVENING (~9 PM - MIDNIGHT).
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED (~50-80% CHANCES OR GREATER) AREAWIDE
NEAR & AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS FREEZING
RAIN TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- BECOMING COLDER & MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES (~20-40%) FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1017 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FORECAST DETAILS LARGELY REMAIN ON TRACK THIS EVENING. A BAND OF
WINTRY MIX AND RAIN HAS SET UP JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IN CENTRAL
TO EAST CENTRAL WI. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, WE ANTICIPATE THAT
THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF FREEZING RAIN
AND WINTRY MIX TO MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THERE UNTIL 9AM.
ELSEWHERE, SPOTTY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN WI BUT CAMS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL GET TONIGHT, WHICH MAY
MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG CONCERNS, AND LIMIT IT TO A
SPOTTY BASIS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS VISIBLITY AS LOW AS 2
MILES.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 330 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE, A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW, WITH 3 PM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACING THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NEBRASKA-IOWA
BORDER INTO NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO WORK NORTH TOWARD THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS
BORDER. WARM ADVECTION WILL THUS INCREASE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER
THIS EVENING, ENCOURAGING FOG FORMATION AREAWIDE, AS WELL AS
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER 9 PM. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, FAR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS (PARTICULARLY GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES)
COULD BE CLIPPED DURING THE 9 PM - MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO
SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD & SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING.
BETWEEN ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED BETWEEN 9 PM THIS EVENING AND 9 AM TUESDAY. BUDGET
EXTRA TIME IF TAKING TO THE ROADS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING,
PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
TONIGHT: FOG WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 9 PM AS A
STILL MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER COOLS BENEATH A WARM NOSE IN THE 925-
700 MB LAYER. PRECISE LOCATIONS AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
REMAIN A SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT IN CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE, BUT
WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG GIVEN THE MOIST
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF I-94, WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING FOG AND SLICK SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING DEVELOPMENT & PROGRESSION OF A NARROW
BAND OF FREEZING RAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SAID FREEZING
RAIN WILL BLOSSOM ALONG A FRONTOGENESIS BAND IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER, WITH MANY HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTING THE MAJORITY OF
FORCING TO STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS,
NORTHWESTERN SPOTS (PARTICULARLY MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES)
COULD BE CLIPPED BY PRECIP DURING THE 9 PM - MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME,
WITH A LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED SURFACES. STAY WEATHER-
AWARE IF TAKING TO THE ROADS THIS EVENING & TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF
TRAVELING NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
TUESDAY: ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO FILL INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY LASTING THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR
ALL RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
THOUGH ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE OUTSET OF
PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. BETWEEN THIS ACTIVITY AND ANY
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING THIS EVENING, MINOR ICING IS THUS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED IN MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. BUDGET EXTRA TIME IF
COMMUTING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY EVENING: COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVERLAP BETWEEN
COLDER AIR & CONCLUDING PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF I-94. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY, COULD ALSO SEE SOME FREEZING OF REMAINING WET SPOTS
ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 330 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH MID
TO UPPER 40S ON THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH 60-80% CHANCES FOR RAIN
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. RAIN LOOKS TO END ON FRIDAY AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THERE'S CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH DIGS, AND TO THE EXTENT THAT ANY ENERGY BECOMES PARTIALLY OR
COMPLETELY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW, WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS AND SURFACE LOW TRACK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE A TIMEFRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING DAYS,
WITH POTENTIAL OUTCOMES RANGING FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW TO RAIN TO
DRY WEATHER.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 1020 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
EXPECT DECREASING CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AREAS OVER CENTRAL WI IN
GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES MAY SEE A GLAZE OF ICE FROM
FREEZING RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN BEGINS, WITH VIS AS LOW AS 2SM.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 330 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
1002 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING,
RESULTING IN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH WEAKER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH. THE LOW WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE NEAR DAYBREAK TUESDAY, MOVING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE LOW'S PASSAGE. RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME RAIN-SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, THOUGH DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS 1004 MB
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1002 MB WILL
CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY, PROGRESSING EAST INTO QUEBEC
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW'S APPROACH AND PASSAGE WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. DEPENDING ON THE LOW'S CENTRAL
PRESSURE, PERIODS OF GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING SAID CENTRAL
PRESSURE, SO TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK IN NEARSHORE ZONES. WAVES AND
NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN AREA OF APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING
GUSTIER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BECOME NECESSARY DURING THIS PART OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING GALE POTENTIAL IN
NEARSHORE ZONES, SO TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
LM...NONE.
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