560
FXUS63 KMKX 062033
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
233 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE FINAL ROUND OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90/I-94 CORRIDOR ENDING
THIS EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN (70-90%) EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT WINTRY MIX ON
THE BACKSIDE.
- KEEPING AN EYE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THE NEXT CHANCE
(40-60%) OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI, BUT
EXACT AMOUNTS AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 230 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE OF THE LINGERING
RAIN, SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE FOGGY CONDITIONS AND
MIST/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL SEE THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ANY LINGERING RAIN KICK EAST TONIGHT,
BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS LINGER OVERNIGHT, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT OVERNIGHT ONLY LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AS
CLOUDS ARE PROGGED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH ARE
KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL WAA RETURN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS A
BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PEAKS OF SUN IN SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTHERN WI WITH NBM HINTING AT 30-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 45F.
HOWEVER, ON THE FLIP SIDE 12Z HREF ALONG WITH MODELS SOUNDING
SUGGEST THE INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY TRAP ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUDS A BIT LONGER, THUS LIMITING
THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARMING. SO WILL TREND A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE ON THE TEMPS GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS WARMING TREND
WITH LOWS FORECAST ABOVE FREEZING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA PERSISTS
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 230 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHERE THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TREKS OVERHEAD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN WI. OVERALL TREND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMALS TEMPS FOR THURSDAY, BUT QUESTIONS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARMEST OF THESE TEMPS WILL MAKE IT REMAIN IN
QUESTION AS THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM KS INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS HAVE IT A BIT
FURTHER NORTH OVER/ALONG SOUTHERN WI BORDER WHILE ECMWF AND NAM
HAVE THE LOW CENTER STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING FROM THE PLAINS SHOWING SIGNS OF PHASING WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LENDS WAY TO THE OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS ALONG WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS, SYNOPTIC
FORCING, AND MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM TO BRING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES REGARDLESS OF THE THE
TRACK. LATEST TRENDS AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS SUPPORT MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE ALONG WITH THE
850MB 0C LINE SLIDING SOUTH, COULD SEE SOME WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE AIRMASS
DRYING OUT AND BORDERLINE FREEZING TEMPS, BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A COOLER, CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTER IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY, BUT PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH MAY OVERALL LIMIT THE
COLDEST AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE REGION. SO FRIDAY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS, BUT NOT AS WARM AS
THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
OTHERWISE, WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON DEEPER AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
UP TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN WI RANGING FROM OVER LOWER MI TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND PRECIP TO
SOUTHERN WI LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL
ONSET OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY MAY START OFF AS RAIN,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN WI, THE EASTERLY TREND OF THE LOW
TRACK WHILE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS WILL MORE LIKELY SUPPORT
WINTRY PRECIP, MAINLY SNOW GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE
BACKSIDE/COLD SIDE OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM. THUS, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE INCREASED POTENTIAL TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. OVERALL SPECIFIC DETAILS ON LOW
TRACK, PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS, AND IMPACTS REMAIN UP IN THE AIR
THIS FAR OUT.
THEN THE PATTERN CALMS DOWN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. HOWEVER, LONG RANGE MODEL TRENDS
IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 230 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
CONTINUED IFR TO POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL SEEING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 1-3SM OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL, WHILE SEEING LOWER
VISIBILITIES BELOW 2SM INSIDE THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF AND PUSHES OUT
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT LOWER VISIBILITIES AND FOG LINGERS
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THEN
MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 230 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EASTWARD UP
THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND FOG, WHERE WE CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING SOME POCKETS OF DENSE
MARINE FOG AT TIMES GIVEN THE WARM AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND TURN WESTERLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE TREKS UP
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED WINDS TO INCREASE AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY FOR
FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND TURNING MORE
EASTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO LIFT FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UP INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL TO SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHERN WI NEARSHORE WATERS AND GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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