224
FXUS63 KMKX 071530
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
930 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM CST THIS
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WI. A
FEW SLICK SPOTS ON PAVEMENT REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA UNTIL
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED (70-90% CHANCE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT WINTRY MIX ON THE TAIL END.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY (60-75%) SATURDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI, BUT EXACT AMOUNTS AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.
UPDATE
ISSUED 930 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE THICKNESS AND EXTENT OF THE FOG THIS MORNING HAS EXCEEDED
PRIOR EXPECTATIONS, AND AIR TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE AS A RESULT. AS SUCH, THE ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED 2 HOURS TO 11 AM CST.
A SLOW BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
MID DAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES AND A
LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
LOW CLOUDS ARE SOLID ACROSS WI EARLY THIS MORNING, AND LIGHT FOG
(GREATER THAN A HALF MILE VISIBILITY) IS OCCURRING AS WELL.
MONROE WAS REPORTING DENSE FOG (DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE) FOR A
FEW HOURS, BUT IS NOW IMPROVING. JANESVILLE VSBY DIPPED DOWN AS
WELL, BUT IS IMPROVING AGAIN. WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE LIGHTER AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN THROUGH 6 AM, SO WE STILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING
AT 32 TO 34F, AS THEY ARE NOT DROPPING MUCH DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. AREAS WEST OF MADISON HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND HAVING SOME FREEZING
FOG WITH CONCERN FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL WI WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS TO MOVE OUT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MIDWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY
EVENING AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAD A MARKED SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUN, AND THERE IS A CONSENSUS ABOUT THIS SHIFT AMONG ALL
MODELS. WITH THE LOW TRACKING STRAIGHT ACROSS SRN WI, THERE WILL
BE A DRY SLOT IN THE PRECIP, SO OUR QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOWER BY
NEARLY A QUARTER INCH (DOWN TO 0.65 INCH, LOWER IN SOUTHEAST WI
AND HIGHER TOWARD CENTRAL WI) FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF SRN WI. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR ALL BUT CENTRAL WI THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SRN WI ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEPARTING LOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO A
BRIEF WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
AS WE MODELS LATEST MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE IS STILL DEFINITELY SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, ETC, BUT
MODELS HAVE COME INTO LINE SOMEWHAT HELPING TO DETERMINE THE
GENERAL OUTLOOK ON THIS EVENT.
WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE PUSHING OUT FRIDAY WE WILL START TO SEE
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSH IN FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WILL WORK TO KEEP US DRY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SOME
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY GET US STARTED WITH PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CERTAINLY PUSH IN BY DAYBREAK WITH
WETBULBING ALOFT LIKELY BRINGING SOME PRECIP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
6AM SATURDAY TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WE WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UL JET
WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR UPWARD MOTION.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT/PHASING OF THE
CLOSED LOW AT 500MB BUT AS THIS PUSHES IN SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING FROM THE
500MB LOW/PVA AS WELL SOME MIDLEVEL WAA AND FGEN. THE BEST OMEGA
IN SOUNDINGS IS ACTUALLY AROUND THE 600-700MB LEVEL. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING WITH MUCH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THAT PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK IMPACTING MOISTURE AND FORCING FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY. IT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOISTURE IS STILL IN THE REGION JUST
THAT IT MAY BE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. SOUNDING SUPPORT
THIS TO SOME DEGREE WITH OMEGA FALLING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
RETURNING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
SWINGS IN.
DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM TRACK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY FEATURE A PERIOD OF UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES
DUE TO HIGH END MOISTURE SWINGING THROUGH WITH A STRONG TROWAL.
HOWEVER, ONCE THAT PULLS THROUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FALL OFF A
CLIFF AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH. WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN HOW UPPER CLOSED LOWS HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN MORE THAN MODELS EXPECT. WHILE PRECIP MAY
PUSH OUT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING IT MAY NOT FULLY PUSH OUT
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA LIKELY SEEING
TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN IN THE SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY
LIMITING SNOWFALL BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE DGZ WILL NOT BE VERY DEEP BUT AT LEAST INITIALLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING SO SNOW RATIOS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH
LIKELY IN THE 5-9:1 RANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND 10-13:1 RANGE IN
THE NORTHWEST. LATER IN THE EVENT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY THOSE
WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON
RATIOS QUITE A BIT THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AT THAT
POINT. A DRIER MORE POWDERY TYPE PRECIP FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THIS EVENT BUT LIKELY A WETTER/SLUSHIER TYPE SNOW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
LATER SUNDAY HIGHER PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN US NUDGE THROUGH
THE REGION HELPING TO DRY US OUT AS WEAK RIDGING PUSHES BACK IN.
QUIET WEATHER MAY NOT LAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIKELY SWINGS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS ARE
LIKELY UNDER DOING MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS TO BE A
DECENTLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LLJ AND WAA. BEYOND
MONDAY MODELS START TO WILDLY STRAY FROM EACH OTHER BUT THE
PATTERN SUGGESTS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 930 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD LIFT TO IFR LEVELS (OR PERHAPS FUEL-ALT
MVFR) MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOW STRATUS
SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF OUR REGION.
NEARLY CALM / LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. SOME SCATTERED HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS AND
LOW-LEVEL MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO HELP INHIBIT FOG FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SOME MARGINAL LOW
CEILING / FOG POTENTIAL. WITH 2,000 FT AGL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 35 TO 40 KT TONIGHT, SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND MIGHT BE ADDED TO THE 18Z TAFS IF TRENDS
WARRANT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 345 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING SOME POCKETS OF DENSE MARINE
FOG AT TIMES GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER
WATERS. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY, BUT A STRONGER LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LM. THE LOW WILL REACH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY, AND BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT.
FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-
WIZ070 UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
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