384
FXUS63 KMKX 072119
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN A SOUTH TO NORTH FASHION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN INTENSITY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM,
THEN LIKELY FEATURING A LULL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR ICE TO BREAK UP ALONG RIVERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE
JAMS. ISOLATED MINOR RIVER FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN FALLS ON
PARTIALLY FROZEN SOIL.
- ROUGHLY 35% CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
SOME SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN, BUT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) SATURDAY
FOR OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
CALM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUDS AND WIND SHEAR-DRIVEN MIXING OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HELPING TO PREVENT FOG / LOW STRATUS FORMATION THIS
TIME AROUND (DESPITE SOME LINGERING SIGNAL OF LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL WI.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING, WITH A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, PEAKING 3 PM TO 9 PM, THEN LIKELY FEATURING A LULL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ~35% PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE IN THE BALLPARK OF 3/4 OF AN INCH
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH AN AXIS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FROM A DUBUQUE IA TO SHEBOYGAN WI LINE
(SHIFT 2 COUNTIES EAST/WEST FOR UNCERTAINTY) USING THE HIGHER
PERCENTILE (90TH PERCENTILE) ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FOR A 'WORST CASE
SCENARIO'. FROST DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED PATCHES OF FROZEN SOIL EXIST BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND SEVERAL INCHES DOWN. AS THE RAIN FALLS ON THIS
PARTIALLY-FROZEN GROUND, SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES MAY LOOSEN UP ANY REMAINING RIVER
ICE, LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAMS.
THE ~35% PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING INTO FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY
FEATURE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN TOWARDS THE END, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WHATSOEVER.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS DO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND
CYCLOGENESIS AND THE COLDER PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS AT 00Z
SAT WHILE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SAT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
NW INTO WI. COLD ADVECTION WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT UNDERNEATH
THE 500 MB WAVES WITH AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NRN WAVE. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS FROM A 1010 MB
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REACHING SRN LAKE HURON POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS 1000 MB FOR EARLY SAT EVENING.
FARTHER TO THE WEST, THE SRN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO SRN WI
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WAVE FROM THE NW FOR SAT AM. THE TWO UPPER
WAVES WILL THEN MERGE INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WI INTO NRN IL
BY SAT EVENING. THUS A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION (70-80% CHANCES) WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SAT AM VIA PVA AND 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN SLOW THE
PRECIPITATION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SWING SWD THROUGH SRN WI AS A 998 MB LOW
MOVES FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH WITH STEADY LIGHT SNOW
RETURNING. THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC TEMP
PROFILE SUGGEST A TREND TO MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN FOR FAR SE WI.
QPF VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 0.15 INCHES WEST OF MADISON TO 0.30
INCHES FOR FAR ERN WI WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END SUN AM BUT BRISK NWLY WINDS AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE NORTH, AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM MON-WED. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL USA
BY WED. WSWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY OCCUR WITH
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS RETURNING FOR MON-TUE THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FOR WED. 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TRENDING TO
ALL SNOW ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (2,000 FT AGL WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS). LLWS HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE TAFS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND FOG TO ATTEMPT TO FORM LATE TONIGHT, BUT SCATTERED HIGH-
ALTITUDE CLOUDS AND SHEAR-DRIVEN MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
OUGHT TO PREVENT THIS FROM OCCURRING. HENCE, TAFS REFLECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN A SOUTH TO
NORTH MANNER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING 3 PM TO 9 PM CST
THURSDAY, THEN LIKELY FEATURING A LULL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AIRFIELDS WITH SUB-OPTIMAL DRAINAGE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AS RAIN FALLS ON PARTIALLY FROZEN SOIL, AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN WI (CONFIDENCE WAY TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS,
HOWEVER). LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND FOG / MIST (LIFR CONDITIONS)
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN, PARTICULARLY AFTER IT
BECOMES STEADIER IN THE AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE RAIN.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AVERAGING 30.0 INCHES CONTINUES EASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE TO OVERSPREAD LAKE MICHIGAN,
STRENGTHENING (GUSTS TO 20 KT) ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO
30.2 INCHES AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS.
A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARDS AND STRENGTHENING
TO 29.3 INCHES AS IT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES, VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE. SLOWER EAST WINDS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTH HALF.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD (PREDAWN FRIDAY
MORNING), IT SWINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE, WITH
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT, WHICH PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TURNING EAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA WILL PASS SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY, AND THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM (SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY) MAY REACH GALE FORCE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
THURSDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
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