088
FXUS63 KMKX 080319 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
919 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN A SOUTH TO NORTH FASHION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN INTENSITY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM,
THEN LIKELY FEATURING A LULL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR ICE TO BREAK UP ALONG RIVERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE
JAMS. ISOLATED MINOR RIVER FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN FALLS ON
PARTIALLY FROZEN SOIL.
- ROUGHLY 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN, BUT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY (60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES)
SATURDAY FOR OUR REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED 919 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CLIPPED FAR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR SHEBOYGAN, AND APPEAR TO BE
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS NORTH OF MADISON AS WELL. THESE
APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
THERE IS SOME GROUND FOG AT A FEW AIRPORT LOCATIONS, THOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA HAS CLEAR SKIES WITH NO FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME
GROUND FOG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH
TO LIMIT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
CALM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUDS AND WIND SHEAR-DRIVEN MIXING OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HELPING TO PREVENT FOG / LOW STRATUS FORMATION THIS
TIME AROUND (DESPITE SOME LINGERING SIGNAL OF LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL WI.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING, WITH A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, PEAKING 3 PM TO 9 PM, THEN LIKELY FEATURING A LULL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ~35% PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE IN THE BALLPARK OF 3/4 OF AN INCH
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH AN AXIS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FROM A DUBUQUE IA TO SHEBOYGAN WI LINE
(SHIFT 2 COUNTIES EAST/WEST FOR UNCERTAINTY) USING THE HIGHER
PERCENTILE (90TH PERCENTILE) ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FOR A 'WORST CASE
SCENARIO'. FROST DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED PATCHES OF FROZEN SOIL EXIST BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND SEVERAL INCHES DOWN. AS THE RAIN FALLS ON THIS
PARTIALLY-FROZEN GROUND, SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES MAY LOOSEN UP ANY REMAINING RIVER
ICE, LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAMS.
THE ~35% PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING INTO FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY
FEATURE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN TOWARDS THE END, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WHATSOEVER.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS DO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND
CYCLOGENESIS AND THE COLDER PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS AT 00Z
SAT WHILE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SAT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
NW INTO WI. COLD ADVECTION WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT UNDERNEATH
THE 500 MB WAVES WITH AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NRN WAVE. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS FROM A 1010 MB
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REACHING SRN LAKE HURON POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS 1000 MB FOR EARLY SAT EVENING.
FARTHER TO THE WEST, THE SRN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO SRN WI
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WAVE FROM THE NW FOR SAT AM. THE TWO UPPER
WAVES WILL THEN MERGE INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WI INTO NRN IL
BY SAT EVENING. THUS A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION (70-80% CHANCES) WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SAT AM VIA PVA AND 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN SLOW THE
PRECIPITATION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SWING SWD THROUGH SRN WI AS A 998 MB LOW
MOVES FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH WITH STEADY LIGHT SNOW
RETURNING. THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC TEMP
PROFILE SUGGEST A TREND TO MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN FOR FAR SE WI.
QPF VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 0.15 INCHES WEST OF MADISON TO 0.30
INCHES FOR FAR ERN WI WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END SUN AM BUT BRISK NWLY WINDS AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AT LEAST A COUPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE NORTH, AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM MON-WED. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL USA
BY WED. WSWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY OCCUR WITH
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS RETURNING FOR MON-TUE THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FOR WED. 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TRENDING TO
ALL SNOW ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 919 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN AREA OF LOW CEILINGS AROUND 500 FEET AGL CLIPPED FAR
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE
SHEBOYGAN TERMINAL, AND APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH. THERE ARE A COUPLE OTHER SMALL AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS
NORTH OF MADISON AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH.
THERE IS SOME GROUND FOG AT A FEW AIRPORT LOCATIONS, THOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA HAS CLEAR SKIES WITH NO FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME
GROUND FOG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH
TO LIMIT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH 2000 FOOT AGL WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 40
KNOTS. THERE MAY BE MORE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH 2000 FOOT AGL WINDS SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT LEAST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.
RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, LINGERING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 2
MILES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN, THOUGH IT MAY GET A
LITTLE LOWER AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND OR UNDER 500 FEET
AGL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE RAIN MAY WEAKEN TO DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 919 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 29.3 INCHES
AS IT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES, VEERING
SOUTHWEST LATE. LIGHTER EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH HALF
OF THE LAKE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY EVENING VEER NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, IT
SWINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING EAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA WILL PASS SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN.
SHEPPARD/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
THURSDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
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