254
FXUS63 KMKX 080936
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN A SOUTH TO NORTH FASHION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN INTENSITY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM,
THEN LIKELY FEATURING A LULL THIS EVENING/NIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING.
- THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TODAY INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR ICE TO BREAK UP ALONG RIVERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
ISOLATED MINOR RIVER FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN FALLS ON
PARTIALLY FROZEN SOIL.
- ROUGHLY 60 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN, BUT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY (60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES)
SATURDAY FOR OUR REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 330 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO PUSH IN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH PRECIP INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH STRONG WAA AS A
STRONG LLJ SWINGS IN AS WELL AS STRONG FGEN. RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE MOIST COLUMN AND
STRONG FORCING.
HOWEVER, AS QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN WE WILL QUICKLY DRY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS THE DRY SLOT SWINGS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
AS THE DRY SLOT PUSHES IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME INSTABILITY
PUSHING IN AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH SUNLIGHT THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO POP UP WITHIN THE DRY SLOT FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
AS WELL AND WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING AROUND 850MB WITH THE LLJ
REMAINING STRONG, WE MAY EASILY SEE DRIZZLY TYPE PRECIP OR EVEN
LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING BUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT MAY
IMPACT LOWER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. THUS WE WE MAINTAIN
20-50% POPS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION AS THE DRY SLOT PUSHES OUT TO THE
EAST AND WE WILL GET A RETURN OF HIGH PRECIP CHANCES. THIS WILL
BE DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE BACKSIDE LLJ AND TROWAL AND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWING THROUGH WITH CONTINUED HIGHER END MOISTURE. THE BIGGEST
THING ACTING AGAINST HIGHER END POPS AND POTENTIAL HIGHER QPF IS
THE DRIER MIDLEVELS, MORE LIMITED FORCING AND ANY FORCING BEING
MUCH MORE TRANSITORY. IN ANY CASE, WHILE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN, THE FRONT WILL HAVE COME THROUGH COOLING TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THE COLUMN DOWN AND THUS INTRODUCING SOME SNOW. SNOW
LOOKS LIKELY TO BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHWEST AND FAR WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA WHERE COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL. WHILE SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING WE EXPECTED PRECIP TO PUSH OUT
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HELPING TO KEEP
US DRY FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 330 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRI NT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
THANKFULLY THE COLUMN LOOKS DRY OVERHEAD SO FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE. FRI AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD HELP DRY OUT ANY PUDDLES IN TIME
FOR THE FREEZE AS WELL.
I WISH I COULD SAY THAT THE MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
PREDICTING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY, BUT THAT IS NOT THE
CASE. THE PREDICAMENT IS WHETHER OR NOT THE NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOWS WILL PHASE. NOT ONLY DO THE ECMWF AND
GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS TAKE TURNS PHASING/NOT PHASING WITH EACH
RUN, BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO THAT AS WELL. THIS IS NEARLY A
BOOM OR BUST SCENARIO FOR GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN
WI ON SATURDAY. I SAY NEARLY BECAUSE EVERYONE SHOULD GET AT LEAST
A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE UNPHASED SCENARIO SINCE THE NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW WILL STILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION.
IF THE UPPER WAVES PHASE, A SWATH OF SNOW WOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNT (QPF) CAME DOWN
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH.
THIS COULD BE AS LOW AS 0.05 (OR LOWER) IF WE ONLY RECEIVE PRECIP
FROM THE COLD CORE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW.
COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SRN WI ON SATURDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THAT LOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, BUT
HIGHEST IF THE SYSTEMS PHASE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE
FORECAST SAT NT AND SUN NT WITH SUN HIGHS IN THE 20S.
A CLIPPER MAY CROSS WI ON MONDAY AND BRING FLURRIES AND SOME
GUSTIER WINDS. A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE COLUMN, SO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 330 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL PUSH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MODERATE RAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERHAPS
GETTING AS LOW AS LIFR. WITH THE RAIN, EXPECT VSBYS AS LOW AS A
MILE AT TIMES AS RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES.
INTO THIS EVENING, EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS PUSHING IN FROM THE
SOUTH BUT THIS MAY COME WITH A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND TEMPORARILY REDUCED VSBYS. SOME FOG/DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS DRY SLOT THAT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
NIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WI. LATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING PRECIP WILL SWING BACK IN WITH MUSH OF THIS REMAINING
RAIN THOUGH SOME SNOW MIXING IN FURTHER WEST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 330 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES, VEERING SOUTHWEST LATE. LIGHTER EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, IT
SWINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BELOW GALE FORCE BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS. MEANWHILE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 0Z TO 14Z FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING EAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA WILL PASS SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
THURSDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
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