562
FXUS63 KMKX 081641
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1041 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN A SOUTH TO NORTH FASHION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN INTENSITY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM,
THEN LIKELY FEATURING A LULL THIS EVENING/NIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING.
- THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TODAY INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR ICE TO BREAK UP ALONG RIVERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
ISOLATED MINOR RIVER FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN FALLS ON
PARTIALLY FROZEN SOIL.
- ROUGHLY 60 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN, BUT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY (60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES)
SATURDAY FOR OUR REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH AT
THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING A BIT MORE
NORTHWEST, THUS TRACKING OVERHEAD OF THE THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS
SHIFT EXPECTING THE HAZARDS TO SHIFT AS WELL FIRST BEING THE
BAND OF HIGHER RAINFALL CONFINED MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HREF CONTINUES TO PING A BAND OF +1" OF
RAINFALL THROUGH SAUK COUNTY INTO MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE INCREASED RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS, PARTIALLY
FROZEN GROUND TEMPS, AND POTENTIAL FOR PONDING AND MINOR FLOOD
CONCERNS BOTH FOR LOW-LYING AREAS/ROADWAYS AND RIVERS FROM ICE
JAMS, WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, THIS SHIFT ALSO BRINGS THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE (+1INCH PWATS) INTO SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. ALREADY SEEING TEMPS CREEP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS CRACK 50F LATE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THIS
SHIFT, MAY OVERALL SEE LESS RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS, BUT THERE
IS A GROWING CONCERN FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS MUCAPE CLIMBS TO AROUND 500
J/KG AS THE NOSE OF THE 50-60 KT LLJ PUSHES INTO WI. THUS A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER OR STORM OR PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A
LINE SOUTHEAST OF SHEBOYGAN TO MONROE. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 330 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO PUSH IN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH PRECIP INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH STRONG WAA AS A
STRONG LLJ SWINGS IN AS WELL AS STRONG FGEN. RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE MOIST COLUMN AND
STRONG FORCING.
HOWEVER, AS QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN WE WILL QUICKLY DRY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS THE DRY SLOT SWINGS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
AS THE DRY SLOT PUSHES IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME INSTABILITY
PUSHING IN AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH SUNLIGHT THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO POP UP WITHIN THE DRY SLOT FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
AS WELL AND WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING AROUND 850MB WITH THE LLJ
REMAINING STRONG, WE MAY EASILY SEE DRIZZLY TYPE PRECIP OR EVEN
LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING BUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT MAY
IMPACT LOWER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. THUS WE WE MAINTAIN
20-50% POPS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION AS THE DRY SLOT PUSHES OUT TO THE
EAST AND WE WILL GET A RETURN OF HIGH PRECIP CHANCES. THIS WILL
BE DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE BACKSIDE LLJ AND TROWAL AND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWING THROUGH WITH CONTINUED HIGHER END MOISTURE. THE BIGGEST
THING ACTING AGAINST HIGHER END POPS AND POTENTIAL HIGHER QPF IS
THE DRIER MIDLEVELS, MORE LIMITED FORCING AND ANY FORCING BEING
MUCH MORE TRANSITORY. IN ANY CASE, WHILE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN, THE FRONT WILL HAVE COME THROUGH COOLING TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THE COLUMN DOWN AND THUS INTRODUCING SOME SNOW. SNOW
LOOKS LIKELY TO BE RESTRICTED TO NORTHWEST AND FAR WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA WHERE COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL. WHILE SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING WE EXPECTED PRECIP TO PUSH OUT
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HELPING TO KEEP
US DRY FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 330 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRI NT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
THANKFULLY THE COLUMN LOOKS DRY OVERHEAD SO FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE. FRI AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD HELP DRY OUT ANY PUDDLES IN TIME
FOR THE FREEZE AS WELL.
I WISH I COULD SAY THAT THE MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
PREDICTING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY, BUT THAT IS NOT THE
CASE. THE PREDICAMENT IS WHETHER OR NOT THE NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOWS WILL PHASE. NOT ONLY DO THE ECMWF AND
GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS TAKE TURNS PHASING/NOT PHASING WITH EACH
RUN, BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO THAT AS WELL. THIS IS NEARLY A
BOOM OR BUST SCENARIO FOR GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN
WI ON SATURDAY. I SAY NEARLY BECAUSE EVERYONE SHOULD GET AT LEAST
A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE UNPHASED SCENARIO SINCE THE NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW WILL STILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION.
IF THE UPPER WAVES PHASE, A SWATH OF SNOW WOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNT (QPF) CAME DOWN
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH.
THIS COULD BE AS LOW AS 0.05 (OR LOWER) IF WE ONLY RECEIVE PRECIP
FROM THE COLD CORE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW.
COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SRN WI ON SATURDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THAT LOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, BUT
HIGHEST IF THE SYSTEMS PHASE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE
FORECAST SAT NT AND SUN NT WITH SUN HIGHS IN THE 20S.
A CLIPPER MAY CROSS WI ON MONDAY AND BRING FLURRIES AND SOME
GUSTIER WINDS. A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE COLUMN, SO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LOWER MVFR/IFR TO ACCOMPANY THE
INCOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF HWY-151 WITH
LOWEST VISIBILITIES. MEANWHILE AREAS SOUTHEAST MAY SEE LESS
RAIN AS A BIT MORE DRY AIR MOVES IN, BUT THERE IS A GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT TO SEE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OVER A TERMINAL. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 03Z WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSISTING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THOSE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS AROUND
LONGER, WHILE ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
WINTRY MIX SWINGS THROUGH BY DAYBREAK. WILL SEE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 330 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES, VEERING SOUTHWEST LATE. LIGHTER EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, IT
SWINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BELOW GALE FORCE BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS. MEANWHILE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 0Z TO 14Z FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING EAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA WILL PASS SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
THURSDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
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