423
FXUS63 KMKX 090840
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
240 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ENDING THIS MORNING, PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXING WITH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES.
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM UP EARLY TO
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TURNING COLDER ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 239 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RIVER
RISES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RUNOFF CONTINUES, ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALIZED ICE JAM ISSUES.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING
LOOK FOR A FINAL NARROW BAND OF RAIN TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG/FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BEGIN AS EARLY AS BEFORE DAYBREAK, BUT WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT AMOUNTS, BUT RIGHT NOW MOST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 3") FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS, DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SO SOME BLOWING SNOW IS TO BE EXPECTED.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 239 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER, WITH UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S EXPECTED, BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, AHEAD OF A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WORKWEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 239 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
IFR WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS
A NARROW AREA OF MAINLY RAIN (A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AT
TIMES) MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 15Z, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME FOG AND FREEZING
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 239 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF 29.3 INCHES WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING, REACHING WESTERN LAKE
HURON BY DAYBREAK. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GALES ARE
OCCURING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.2 INCHES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL INTERACT, MERGING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT LIFT INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. GALES MAY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...6 AM FRIDAY
TO 3 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 2 PM
FRIDAY.
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