945
FXUS63 KMKX 100418
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST-CENTRAL WI. LIGHTER
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FROM MADISON WESTWARD.
- GALES EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
- COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BEFORE TURNING COLDER BY MIDWEEK ONCE AGAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1019 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. STILL FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN
MOST REGIONS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S IN FAR SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
SNOWFALL. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE EARLY STAGES
OF THE SNOW BAND STILL EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVES
HAVE BEGUN TO INTERACT ACROSS IOWA, WITH EXPECTATION FOR SNOW TO
FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT
EXPECTATION FOR SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. ALSO HAVE SEEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO CLEAR AS WELL, THUS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
EVENING. WITH THIS POCKET OF CLEARING PAIRED WITH LIGHT WINDS,
EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE AROUND 30F AND INTO THE UPPER
20S TONIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG AND EVEN SOME FREEZING FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED OR ELEVATED SURFACE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEN THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. STILL EXPECTING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MERGE/PHASE
OVER THE MIDWEST WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING UP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS
STILL ARE PROGGING THE FORCING FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT BULK OF THE
FORCING FOR THE INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN WI WILL
COME FROM LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BANDING PAIRED WITH SLUG OF
GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE
SNOW DURING THIS WINDOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH RATES OF
1/4 INCH/HR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF 1/2 INCH/HR. THEN THE FORCING
SHIFTS EAST AND SEE SNOW LIGHTEN INTO THE THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW WITH MODELS PROGGING LOW-LEVEL WAA WRAPPING AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IT AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL, AREAS WEST OF I-39 WILL SEE LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS
THE FORCING MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH AND FOCUSES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA, BUT STILL EXPECTING TO PICK UP A DUSTING TO
AROUND INCH OR SO WITH THE TWO WINDOWS OF SNOW. THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO OCCUR TOWARD OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE WITH A SWATH OF 1-3
INCHES. GIVEN THE BAND OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PAIRED WITH
A BIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE TERRAIN, COULD NOT RULE OUT
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL APPROACHING 4 OR MORE
INCHES, ESPECIALLY TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER, STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PHASING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ALSO MILD
ONSHORE WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND TEMPS AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN WI MAY LIMIT TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX AT TIMES AND LOWER SLR.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THINGS TREND BUT GIVEN THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, UNCERTAINTY, AND LONGER DURATION OF THE SNOW,
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
QUIETER AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. WILL THEN SEE THE HIGH SLIDE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE 40S. THEN LATER TUESDAY EXPECTING A TROUGH TO WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WI. LATEST MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR
NORTH, WITH SOUTHERN WI IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THUS
LIKELY RESULTING IN RAIN GIVEN THE MILDER TRENDS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WILL SEE MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS ARRIVE BY MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN MORE ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1019 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
FOG POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED FOR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG ARE OBSERVED IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD JVL/MSN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOG IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO THE 3-6 SM RANGE. MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE BUILT IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH RATES TO 0.5"/HR AT TIMES
AND IFR CEILINGS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PORTIONS OF THE BAND. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE INITIAL
STAGES OF THE BAND, BUT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND
BECOME DRY SNOW AS WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND BRING IN COOLER
AIR. EXPECTING 1-1.5 INCHES FROM MSN TO JVL, WITH 1-3 INCHES IN
THE KETTLE MORAINE AND LAKE MICHIGAN TERMINALS. SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS WITH
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS, BUT ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY. WITHIN THESE SHOWERS,
1000-2000 FT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THEN LOOKING
AT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ONE COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST MERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO AS IT LIFTS INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE, EXPECTING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WIND THEN GRADUALLY
EASE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...2 PM
SATURDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM
SUNDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3 AM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
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