595
FXUS63 KMKX 101712
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1112 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LULL IN THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, THEN PERIODS OF SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LESS
THAN 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED, BUT THE RAPIDLY
FALLING AIR TEMPS THIS EVENING COULD LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS / RE-
FREEZE OF WET PAVEMENT.
- MILD TO START THE WORKWEEK, WITH THE WARMTH PEAKING ON TUESDAY
(HIGHS IN THE MID 40S).
UPDATE
ISSUED 1100 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
STEADY SNOWFALL OVER FAR EASTERN WI WILL PUSH OUT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY AROUND NOON TODAY, LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES IN IT'S WAKE (ALREADY MOSTLY SUNNY IN LONE ROCK
AND WISCONSIN DELLS BASED ON SATELLITE). SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
DRY WEATHER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. LESS THAN 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED FROM THIS
SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY (MOST ESTIMATES AROUND 0.5 INCH OR LESS),
BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A RE-FREEZE OF ANY WET AND
UNTREATED SURFACES (OVERNIGHT LOW AROUND 20 DEGREES EXPECTED,
WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY THIS EVENING). HOPEFULLY THE
PATCHES OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME TIME FOR
EVAPORATION.
THE EXISTING SNOW PACK (FROM THIS MORNING) IS SO WET / SLUSHY
THAT THE 25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE UNABLE TO CAUSE BLOWING / DRIFTING SNOW. THE
ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW (WHICH MAY FALL
TONIGHT WITH THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS) WILL BE POWDERY, BUT
THAT'S NOT MUCH TO WORK WITH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A RE-FREEZE
OF PUDDLES / WET PAVEMENT, WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY BEING A LESSER CONCERN THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 212 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING'S SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED EAST OF I-39/90, WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NEAR THE LAKESHORE, WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S NOTED, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES.
OVERALL LOOK FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST OF I-39/90 THROUGH
NOON, LOCALLY UP TO 3 ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MID DAY AS THE INITIAL
WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA (SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL).
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND, STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA MID AFTERNOON, AND THIS
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE
DON'T LOOK TO BE TRUE SNOW SQUALLS, BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
SUNDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 212 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER THIS WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK, WITH HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 40S. A CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL
INITIALLY BE A CHANCE (30-40%) FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ONCE AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 1100 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A LULL IN THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND CEILINGS RAPIDLY SCATTERING OUT. GUSTS ACCELERATE
(ROUGHLY 20 TO 30 KT GUSTS) AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
SUNDAY MORNING, BACKING SW AND FURTHER DECELERATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY / TONIGHT, LESS THAN
1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED (MOST ESTIMATES ARE
0.5 INCH OR LESS). TEMPERATURES PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING
LATER TODAY, AND A RE-FREEZE OF ANY WET PAVEMENT IS POSSIBLE.
BROKEN MVFR / FUEL-ALT MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS (BETWEEN 1,000 AND
3,000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FROM 5 PM CST TODAY AND ONWARDS. SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THOUGH
THE MVFR CEILINGS COULD HOLD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 212 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, AND THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO 29.5 INCHES AS IT LIFTS INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED,
AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROGGED
TO TRAVERSE NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-
WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 1
PM SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM SUNDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3
AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...2 PM
SATURDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY.
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