462
FXUS63 KMKX 110407
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON AND OFF
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF BY
6 AM CST. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- MILD TO START THE WORKWEEK, WITH THE WARMTH PEAKING ON TUESDAY
(HIGHS IN THE MID 40S).
- THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS 20-35% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY 10-35% LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1008 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL, VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 MILES WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, INDICATING THAT THE
FORECAST OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS VERIFYING WELL. A SHORTWAVE
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SUBSIDENCE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN, SO A BRIEF BREAK IN LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT SNOW STRETCHES UPSTREAM ALL THE WAY
TO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA, AND END TIMES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM CST.
ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE 500MB CENTROID OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TWO OF IT'S
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL PASS OVER OUR REGION THIS
EVENING / TONIGHT, WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S SUNSHINE AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WORKING TOGETHER TO SHARPEN SURFACE TO 800MB LAPSE RATES
UPWARDS OF 8 C/KM AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 5 PM AND
10 PM CST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
BETWEEN THEN AND 5 AM CST SUNDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH EVEN
THE UPPER PERCENTILE ESTIMATES FALLING SHY OF 1 INCH.
THE EXISTING SNOW PACK (ON THE GROUND) IS TOO WET / SLUSHY TO
BLOW AROUND, HENCE DESPITE THE 25 TO 35 MPH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WE ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE LIGHTER /
POWDERY SNOW WHICH COULD BE SUSPENDED IN THE AIR, BUT THE
EXPECTED AMOUNTS (0.5") ARE NOT MUCH TO WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES
FALL DEEP INTO THE 20S THIS EVENING, REACHING AROUND 20 DEGREES
FLAT FOR AN OVERNIGHT LOW. HENCE, THERE COULD BE SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON PAVEMENT WHERE LINGERING PUDDLES / MOISTURE ARE FOUND,
AS WELL AS FROM THE TRACE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS ONLY FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AFTER ~5 AM CST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, DISSIPATING TOWARDS MID DAY AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
APART. HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND A LOW IN THE MID 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE EASTERN TROUGH THEN DEEPENS A
BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT
ION INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT PASSES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER. THIS MAY MELT
ANY LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE MAINLY 20
PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER MEAGER WITH
DEEP MOISTURE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN KICKS IN TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY, AS GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS DEVELOP WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENTIAL CVA WITH PASSING
VORTICITY MAXIMA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. KEPT SOME 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND THESE VALUES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM ENSEMBLES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH OR NORTH OF THE AREA MAINLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW, AND
THIS MAY BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1008 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED WITHIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.
A FEW AREAS MAY SEE CLOUD DECKS AS LOW AS 1500 FT, BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 SM WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO
EAST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY
MORNING, BECOMING SCATTERED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING,
TAPERING OFF INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KT INTO MONDAY EVENING, GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING, AND WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 29.5 INCHES
AS IT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO TONIGHT, AS HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED, AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.3 INCHES, WHICH MAY MOVE TO NORTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM SUNDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3
AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 PM
SUNDAY.
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