883
FXUS63 KMKX 111622
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TO START THE WORKWEEK, WITH THE WARMTH PEAKING ON TUESDAY
(HIGHS IN THE MID 40S).
- THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS 20-40% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY 20-40% LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
- TURNING COLDER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1020 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO HANG ON LONGER THAN PRIOR
EXPECTATIONS TODAY, LIKELY DECREASING FROM OVERCAST TO BROKEN
COVERAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
STATUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME SCATTERING / CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN WI.
MEANWHILE, A PLUME OF 850-700MB WAA / FGEN AND RELATIVELY WEAK
500MB PVA MIGHT WORK WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WI,
MAINLY BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM CST THIS EVENING. NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
NORTH OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO FOND DU LAC LINE, THOUGH IT COULD
CONCEIVABLY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS A JUNEAU TO NORTH MILWAUKEE
LINE.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
FLURRIES AND A FEW REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY
DAYBREAK, WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, AND WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
TURN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT AROUND
30.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
A STRONG CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND ALSO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING, WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE 20S, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 1020 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM OVC TO BKN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COULD HANG ON TO THE ~2,500 FT AGL ALTITUDE,
PERHAPS LIFTING A FEW HUNDRED FEET WITH THE GENTLE DAYTIME
HEATING BUT STILL MVFR. TERMINALS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN WI MAY OBSERVE SOME SCATTERING / CLEARING OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI, CEILINGS
LINGER, WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 PM
AND 11 PM CST. NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
40 TO 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 2,000 FT AGL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS, WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO TAFS.
WE'LL LIKELY BE ADDING IT TO ALL OF OUR TAFS (INCLUDING KSBM) ON
THE 18Z ISSUANCE. DRY CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS TO
TRY TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN TAFS.
FOR THE SURFACE WIND FIELD, LIGHT WESTERLIES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT WITH A FEW ~20 KT
GUSTS MANAGING TO MIX DOWN FROM THE SHEAR LAYER AT TIMES.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 303 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
NORTHWEST GALES WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER LAKE HURON, AND HIGH
PRESSURE OF 30.5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS GRADUALLY
EASE AND TURN WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.3 INCHES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN. GALE POTENTIAL
MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 PM
SUNDAY.
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