063
FXUS63 KMKX 030606
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1206 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER NEAR THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER
(~10%) THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 3 AM CST.
- MILDER END TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN (20-40%) POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW (~20%) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1206 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE SKIES
CLEAR EARLIEST AND LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR MORE SLOWLY. WITH VERY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, EXPECT WIND CHILLS NEAR THE AIR
TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S, AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AS WINDS CALM AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT SHIFT WESTERLY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1206 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING CHANCES (20 TO 30
PERCENT) FOR SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN. AS LOW
PRESSURE HOOKS INTO THE HUDSON BAY, EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE PATTERN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY REGIONS ON THURSDAY WITH
STIFF WAA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE
NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND CREATE THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELING IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BUT WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM (HIGHS IN THE MID-30S ON FRIDAY), MIXED PRECIPITATION OF
RAIN TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AND PERHAPS AGAIN INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK, FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WITH SHIFTS BETWEEN WARM SECTOR AND COLD
SECTORS IN THESE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1206 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 10,000
FT) WILL EXIT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FT ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT, WITH VFR
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 1206 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, INCREASING AND
BECOMING GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY,
AND WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION, BUT A CLIPPER SYSTEM DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE AND SHIFT BACK TO
WESTERLY.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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