311
FXUS63 KMKX 040000 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
600 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES (~20-40%) FOR SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (~20-40%) FOR MOSTLY SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
COULD MIX IN.
- MILDER END TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW (~20%) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 600 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY CLIP THE LAKESHORE AREAS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT TIMES. THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KENOSHA AREA LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL STILL WATCH THE FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS
OVERNIGHT JUST IN CASE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS BAND TRIES TO
CLIP THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, THEN
FOCUS MORE TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH, BUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR
MOST AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 107 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN
CITIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FEATURE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN,
WHERE A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FETCH HAS ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER TO WORK INLAND. SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TWIN CITIES HIGH GRADUALLY WORKS EAST.
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
OVER THE OPEN WATERS & AWAY FROM SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. BROAD WARM
ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE LOWER LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN
STEADILY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE INTO AT LEAST
THE LOW-MID 30S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON & ON
FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW APPEARS FAVORED AT THIS TIME, WITH
PROBABILISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN EACH ROUND OF ACTIVITY. THE FRIDAY DISTURBANCE WILL
PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BRINGING MUCH
CHILLIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT: WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST, ANTICIPATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING & CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
LOW-LYING SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING TO/BELOW ZERO BEFORE SUNRISE.
MESOSCALE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT APPARENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN ITS VICINITY. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE PROGGED TO
BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL OPEN WATERS TO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS, EXPECT THAT ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WOULD REMAIN BY AND LARGE
AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL NEVERTHELESS BE MONITORING
TRENDS THROUGH THE ~12 AM - 6 AM TIMEFRAME, WHEN ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS TO FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY: THE FIRST OF TWO LATE WEEK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, ENCOURAGING A ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP WILL FOCUS ALONG WARM
ADVECTION & FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER, WHICH CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THUS FOR MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DESPITE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
INFLUENCES, THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN SNOWFALL, WITH
PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS INDICATING LIGHT (~INCH OR LESS) TOTALS
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES OVER
COMING FORECASTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY: A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL FOCUS WHERE MID-LEVEL
LIFT FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE OVERLAPS WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT FROM
A PASSING COLD FRONT, WHICH IS ONCE MORE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL HAVE
CONTINUED TO WARM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION,
THOUGH THE COUPLING OF MID & LOW-LEVEL LIFT/ATTENDANT DYNAMIC
COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR P-TYPE
TRENDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, AS WEAKER
LIFT COULD TRANSLATE TO A LOSS OF CLOUD ICE & POTENTIAL
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXING IN WITH SNOW. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY
FOR ANY CHANGES IN COMING FORECASTS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS
POSSIBLE, WITH PROBABILISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE ONCE MORE SUGGESTING
LIGHT TOTALS.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 107 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
SYNOPSIS: FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO STEADILY CLIMB ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS EXPECT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY, WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
OFFER SPECIFICS REGARDING ACCUMULATION, THOUGH INITIAL EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR LIGHT TOTALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND OFFER
ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN LATER FORECASTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY
APPROACH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH GLOBAL FORECAST GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPLIT OVER PRECISE SYSTEM TRACK & PREFERRED PRECIP
PLACEMENT. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED PRECIP PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM IN
THIS FORECAST, WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO COME AS TRENDS CLARIFY IN
LATER FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 600 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FEET
AGL MAY CLIP THE LAKESHORE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT TIMES. THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KENOSHA TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL STILL WATCH THIS AREA OVERNIGHT JUST IN
CASE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS BAND TRIES TO CLIP KENOSHA.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, THEN
FOCUS MORE TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 107 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. PLACEMENT OF THE TWO FEATURES IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TREND WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS TO THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY. AREAS OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER TO NEAR 992 MB OVER THE CENTRAL
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT, ULTIMATELY PROGRESSING INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS IN THE PROCESS, RESULTING IN A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY
GALES REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH
TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES IN COMING FORECASTS.
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG & AHEAD OF THE PASSING
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL COMBINE WITH ARCTIC AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TO SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE
NEED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES BEING EVALUATED IN COMING FORECASTS.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TAPER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN, PRIOR TO INCREASING ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FEATURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN NEARSHORE ZONES ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS. CONDITIONS WILL TAPER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED OVER
COMING FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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