411
FXUS63 KMKX 042043
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1 INCH OR LESS) ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW (UNDER 0.5") AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN MID-MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES IN
ICE FREE AREAS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 243 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, WITH GRADUALLY RISING TEMPS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN. A SOLD
SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IS THEN EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING A ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE UP
TO 0.5" AN HOUR WITH MORE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SNOW
TOTALS RANGING FROM A TENTH OR TWO SOUTHWEST OF MADISON TO
UPWARDS OF AN INCH TOWARDS FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED
ROADS. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A LITTLE FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE THU MORNING INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP
WINDS DOWN, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ON TO SATURATION IN THE
ICE GROWTH REGION UNTIL AROUND WHEN THEN PRECIP COMES TO AN END.
SO, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN PRECIP TYPE REMAINING SNOW VS A
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE NEAR
TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE, REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
A DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIP,
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT, WILL LIKELY BE MORE
OF A MIXED VARIETY OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN A LACK OF
SATURATION IN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION AT TIMES. THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE MAINLY SNOW NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FOND DU
LAC AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS WHERE SATURATION WILL BE DEEPER.
OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN TOMORROW, WITH TOTALS
LIKELY 0.5" OR LESS. EVEN SO, THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LEAD TO
MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN. EVEN MILDER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FRI, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S LIKELY. FALLING TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH TEMPS LIKELY DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 243 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL THEN BRING
INCREASED CLOUD AND PRECIP CHANCES (30% OR LESS) BACK TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL JUST BRUSH THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QUIET WEATHER IS THEN LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING MOVES
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH WARMING TEMPS
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK. COULD CRACK 40 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A COUPLE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK FORCING MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS AS
WELL.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 243 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO
SCATTER AND RETREAT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM A TENTH OR TWO SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON TO UPWARDS OF AN INCH TOWARDS FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN
ARE LIKELY. SNOW RATES COULD BE BRIEFLY MODERATE, UP TO 0.5" AN
HOUR. VISIBILITIES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE IN AND OUT OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS, LIKELY DROPPING AS LOW AS 1-3 SM AT TIMES.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 3 KFT DURING THE SNOW AS
WELL. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE FAIRLY AVERAGE, AROUND
12-14 TO 1. A LITTLE SNOW MAY LINGER IN THE EAST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 243 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.5 INCHES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH JAMES
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN
WATERS FROM MID-MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
IS LOOKING LIKELY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
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