094
FXUS63 KMKX 050613
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1 INCH OR LESS) ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW (UNDER 0.5") AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
MID-MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1213 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS WILL KICK OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE 10% OR LESS FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WE LOOSE CLOUD ICE DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS PRECIP EVENT (LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON). ITS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONCE THE SNOW STARTS THAT IT REMAINS SNOW THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT WITH MANY OF THE SOUNDING PROFILES BACKING THAT UP.
THE PROFILES HAVE DRIED UP IN THE LOW LEVELS QUIET A BIT
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A NICE INVERTED V SOUNDING AND
THE CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER. CAN'T RULE IT OUT
COMPLETELY AS IF THERE IS ANY FORCING THE CLOUD LAYER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY ICE CRY FORMATION. REGARDLESS THERE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOME IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE AS SNOW STARTS
TO FALL AND COULD EASILY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. GENERALLY EXPECTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES FOR
SNOWFALL AROUND 0.5 INCH/HR.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE SNOW WILL END AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PULLING ABOVE FREEZING (ABOVE 32). DRY
WEATHER, QUIET CONDITIONS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST HOWEVER
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE DRIVEN BY A SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. DESPITE
THIS LARGELY OCCURING OVERNIGHT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE LOOKS
TO AGAIN BE A STRUGGLE WITH THE FORMATION OF AND PRESENCE OF ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD DECK FOR SNOW. SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE. THERE ISNT A CLEAR TIME FOR
PRECIP CHANGE OVER NOR IS IT EXPECTED TO BE SOLELY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. IF WE DO LOOSE CLOUD ICE THEN ITS WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED PATCHES THAT DON'T LAST LONG. THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE MAY LIKELY BE IMPACTED.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE FRIDAY BRINGS WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE A BIT COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (15%) FOR SOME MID LEVEL WAA TO
KICK OFF SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
ON THIS IS LOW.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1213 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (15% OR LESS) MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL WAA
PULLS EAST OUT OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE LARGELY
DRY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ALOFT AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
LOOKS FLATTENS OUT AND MOVES EAST. THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCES STARTS TO
DIVERGE A BIT IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS REALLY FLATTENS OUT THE
RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MUCH MORE ZONAL
PATTERN WHILE CAN AND EURO HAVE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING
EAST. THE MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER
NORTH. THIS SHOWS UP IN THE ENSEMBLES AND WHEN LOOKING AT THE
CLUSTERS ANALYSIS AS WELL WITH A MONOPOLE SET UP (UNCERTAINTIES
IN AMPLITUDE). THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AROUND 15% OR LESS
DURING THIS TIME ON TUESDAY DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND RIDGING. MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO MOVE
IN BY MID WEEK WHICH PAINTS THE EXTENDED WITH A LOT OF LOW
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
TIMING ISSUES WHICH WILL CLEAN UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW THE ONLY OTHER THING WORTH MENTIONING OF THE EXTENDED IS THERE
WILL BE A WARM UP HEADING OUT WAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WISCONSIN WILL HAVE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP THE WAA UNDERWAY. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT WE COULD CRACK 40 DEGREES. FOR CONTEXT THIS IS
ABOVE NORMAL BUT WELL BELOW THE RECORD VALUES.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1213 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND WITH
IT WILL BE INCOMING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND
8 TO 10Z (2-4AM) AND MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND
MID TO LATE MORNING. RATES UP TO 0.5 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE AROUND A TRACE TO AN INCH WITH
THE HIGHER TOTALS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN EAST CENTRAL
(INCLUDING SBM). LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD SOUTHWEST FROM
THERE (INCLUDING MSN AND JVL). THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLIGHTLY
WETTER PACKING SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AROUND
DAYBREAK. AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH VISIBILITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1 TO 4SM WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1 TO 3 KFT.
THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WITH TOTALS AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND INTERMITTENT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY
LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHT THIS EVENING AND
TURN TO WESTERLY. THE LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1213 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.5 INCHES IN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THURSDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH JAMES
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN
WATERS FROM MID-MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LOOKING
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
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