189
FXUS63 KMKX 051218
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
618 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1 INCH OR LESS) ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE (ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
- A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW (1 INCH OR LESS) AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
MID-MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
ARE EXPECTED.
- LOW CHANCES (10-25%) FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI.
UPDATE
ISSUED 610 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK, SO I WILL FOCUS ONLY ON
WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED.
AS OF RIGHT NOW (6 AM CST), LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
CONFIRMED TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI (WITH FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN AIRPORTS CONFIRMING), WITH SOME FLURRIES EXTENDING
SOUTH TO WATERTOWN / WAUKESHA / MILWAUKEE / JANESVILLE. THIS
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION, WRAPPING UP AROUND NOON (OR SOON THEREAFTER). THAT
LEAVES US WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WE STILL CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH WE'VE
LIMITED THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO 10% FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. SNOW TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, THOUGH EAST-CENTRAL
WI STILL STANDS A CHANCE OF REACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING THE 1
INCH MARK (GIVEN THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN).
MOSTLY A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ELSEWHERE.
THE LATE TONIGHT / FRIDAY MORNING PRECIP REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
PRIOR EXPECTATIONS, THOUGH WE CAN NOW CONFINE THE TIME RANGE OF
THAT ACTIVITY FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THRU 9 AM CST FRIDAY
(WHEN THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL QPF FALLS). FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM
FRIDAY, WE'VE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO ~30% OR LESS. SNOW
TOTALS FOR THIS SECOND PHASE ARE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 INCH OR
LESS (FOR NOW), WITH PREDOMINANTLY 'JUST SNOW' FALLING TOWARDS
EAST CENTRAL WI AND A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE /
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE REGION (GLAZE OF ICE
POSSIBLE). ONCE CONCERNING TREND HAS BEEN THE SHIFT /
RE-CENTERING OF MODEL QPF FURTHER SOUTH (OVER TOP OF OUR
REGION), MEANING THAT THE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AM COMMUTE IMPACTS
COULD BE MORE OF A 'REGION WIDE' THREAT AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY
JUST EAST-CENTRAL WI. THAT SAID, THE HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL (TO AROUND 1 INCH) REMAINS IN EAST-CENTRAL WI DUE TO
THE LACK OF RAIN MIXING IN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE CAN NO LONGER BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1213 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS WILL KICK OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE 10% OR LESS FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WE LOOSE CLOUD ICE DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS PRECIP EVENT (LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON). ITS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONCE THE SNOW STARTS THAT IT REMAINS SNOW THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT WITH MANY OF THE SOUNDING PROFILES BACKING THAT UP.
THE PROFILES HAVE DRIED UP IN THE LOW LEVELS QUIET A BIT
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A NICE INVERTED V SOUNDING AND
THE CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER. CAN'T RULE IT OUT
COMPLETELY AS IF THERE IS ANY FORCING THE CLOUD LAYER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY ICE CRY FORMATION. REGARDLESS THERE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOME IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE AS SNOW STARTS
TO FALL AND COULD EASILY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. GENERALLY EXPECTING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES FOR
SNOWFALL AROUND 0.5 INCH/HR.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE SNOW WILL END AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PULLING ABOVE FREEZING (ABOVE 32). DRY
WEATHER, QUIET CONDITIONS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST HOWEVER
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE DRIVEN BY A SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. DESPITE
THIS LARGELY OCCURING OVERNIGHT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE LOOKS
TO AGAIN BE A STRUGGLE WITH THE FORMATION OF AND PRESENCE OF ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD DECK FOR SNOW. SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE. THERE ISNT A CLEAR TIME FOR
PRECIP CHANGE OVER NOR IS IT EXPECTED TO BE SOLELY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. IF WE DO LOOSE CLOUD ICE THEN ITS WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED PATCHES THAT DON'T LAST LONG. THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE MAY LIKELY BE IMPACTED.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE FRIDAY BRINGS WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE A BIT COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (15%) FOR SOME MID LEVEL WAA TO
KICK OFF SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
ON THIS IS LOW.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1213 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (15% OR LESS) MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL WAA
PULLS EAST OUT OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE LARGELY
DRY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ALOFT AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
LOOKS FLATTENS OUT AND MOVES EAST. THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCES STARTS TO
DIVERGE A BIT IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS REALLY FLATTENS OUT THE
RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MUCH MORE ZONAL
PATTERN WHILE CAN AND EURO HAVE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING
EAST. THE MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER
NORTH. THIS SHOWS UP IN THE ENSEMBLES AND WHEN LOOKING AT THE
CLUSTERS ANALYSIS AS WELL WITH A MONOPOLE SET UP (UNCERTAINTIES
IN AMPLITUDE). THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AROUND 15% OR LESS
DURING THIS TIME ON TUESDAY DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND RIDGING. MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO MOVE
IN BY MID WEEK WHICH PAINTS THE EXTENDED WITH A LOT OF LOW
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
TIMING ISSUES WHICH WILL CLEAN UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW THE ONLY OTHER THING WORTH MENTIONING OF THE EXTENDED IS THERE
WILL BE A WARM UP HEADING OUT WAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WISCONSIN WILL HAVE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP THE WAA UNDERWAY. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT WE COULD CRACK 40 DEGREES. FOR CONTEXT THIS IS
ABOVE NORMAL BUT WELL BELOW THE RECORD VALUES.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 600 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEGUN TO GRADUALLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION, WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES (DOWN TO 2 SM) AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CURRENTLY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI (AND
FURTHER NORTH / WEST), FLURRIES REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS
WATERTOWN / WAUKESHA, AND THE REST OF THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FURTHER SOUTH STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO EVAPORATION
(THOUGH FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT DOWN AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING). THE STEADIER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL / EAST-CENTRAL WI OVER THE COURSE OF
THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING TOWARDS MID-DAY TODAY AND LEAVING A
LULL (DRY WEATHER) INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS. SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD (10% CHANCE). ELSE, DRY
WEATHER. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE TODAY, VEERING WEST INTO THIS
EVENING.
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING, A SECOND
ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH THE MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO DESCEND TO IFR. THIS ROUND WILL AGAIN FEATURE
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT MIXED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE (ESP
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN THE REGION). THIS ACTIVITY WILL WIND
DOWN AFTER 9 AM, WITH ONLY 30% PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH
THE REST OF FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE AROUND DAWN FRIDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 1213 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.5 INCHES IN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THURSDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH JAMES
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN
WATERS FROM MID-MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LOOKING
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
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