045
FXUS63 KMKX 052023
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
223 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW (DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH) OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI WITH
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND A GLAZE OF ICE FOR SOUTHWESTERN WI. IMPACTS TO THE FRIDAY
AM COMMUTE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (10-30%) FOR A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- MILDER TEMPS FOR START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 215 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY:
LAST OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL
STAY DRY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TONIGHT, BUT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE RANGING FROM MID-20S TO LOWER 30S
AS LOW-LEVEL WAA BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD ANOTHER CLIPPER
OVERNIGHT.
THE OVERNIGHT CLIPPER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER AS AMPLE 850MB WAA PAIRS WITH THE
500MB DCVA AND A BAND OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALIGN THIS
FORCING WITH A SWATH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WHERE PWATS RANGE FROM
0.3-0.5 INCH, WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES
(60-95%) ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. MAIN WINDOW WILL BE FROM AROUND
06Z ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CWA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK BEFORE EXITING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PRECIP TYPES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN A
WARMER PATTERN ALONG WITH LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST QPF.
STILL SEEING SOME RUN TO RUN VARIANCE IN THE SHORT-TERM MODELS
AS QPF HAVE INCREASED AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH FROM
LAST NIGHTS RUNS. GENERALLY SEEING A CONSENSUS OF A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED BAND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA. HAVE
LEANED MORE INTO THE 12Z HREF WITH PMM QPF AROUND 0.1" ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR, WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING
HIGHER QPF VALUES OF >0.1" GIVEN THE BANDED AND MORE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY, WHICH LINES UP MORE WITH THE HREF LPMM.
AGAIN COULD STILL THIS HEAVIER QPF BAND SHIFT WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS INTO THE EVENING.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE. WHILE THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO SATURATE AND REMAIN WITHIN THE DGZ ALOFT
AND AROUND FREEZING NEAR THE SURFACE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF I-90 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE WARMER LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPS BORDERING FREEZING.
THUS HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CWA
WITH MORE OF A TRANSITION WITH WETTER SNOW ALONG/JUST NORTH OF
I-90 AND WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WI. GIVEN A DEGREE OR TWO DIFFERENCE FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP TYPE AND
CAN GO EITHER WAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WI. IF THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MATERIALIZES, EXPECT IT TO OCCUR
IN THE LIGHTER QPF AREA WITH A GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED AND
UNTREATED SURFACES. SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND IF TREND FAVOR MORE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTS OR SNOW IN SOUTHWEST WI.
LASTLY FOR AREA WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED AMOUNTS MAY VARY GIVEN
THE WARMER TEMPS AND VARYING SLR. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
EXPECT SLR OF 8:1 TO 11:1 FOR NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH SNOWFALL
RANGING FROM HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
POCKETS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR MORE ALONG WITH HOURLY
RATES EXCEEDING 0.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER BAND
OF QPF ALIGNING WITH THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AND WAA.
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO SEE LOWER SLR
BELOW 8:1 AND ANY SNOW RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND HALF AN
INCH.
OVERALL, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINTRY PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE EXITING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ANY ACCUMULATIONS AND MAY LINGER INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN WI. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES
MAY LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN BAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, BUT
THE MORE IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END BY MID-
MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER FRIDAY AND DRIER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL PUSH IN LATER FRIDAY.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 215 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST STRETCH OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER TEENS LOWER 20S FOR SATURDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO SOUTHERN WI AND WILL BEGIN WARM UP THROUGH EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMP TRENDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NBM CONTINUES TO PING ON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN INTO THE 40S (40-80% CHANCE
>40F) MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING
SOUTHWESTERN WI EVEN CRACK INTO THE UPPER 40S (10-20%).
OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF ANOTHER CLIPPER OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN EAST-
CENTRAL WI, THE EXTENDED LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AT
THIS TIME.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 215 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH POCKETS OF VFR AT TIMES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
THIS PERSISTING STRATUS DECK AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. TERMINALS ALONG AN NORTHEAST OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR ARE MORE FAVORED TO SEE ACCUMULATING, WETTER SNOW
OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A FEW TENTHS TO UP TO
AROUND AN INCH. ACCOMPANYING THE SNOW WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. ALSO COULD NOT RULE OUT SEE A BAND OF
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 0.5"/HR ACROSS SOUTHERN WI, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE BAND MAY DEVELOP REMAINS IN QUESTIONS.
OTHERWISE, MSN AND JVL WILL BE ON THE BORDER BETWEEN SNOW AND
WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THAT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. OVERALL IMPACTS FOR THIS WINTRY WEATHER AND
IMPACTS BEGINS AROUND 06Z FOR THE DLL AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH 09Z AND EXITS SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. DRIER, BUT
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 215 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH JAMES BAY REGION TONIGHT AND INTO QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, GRADUALLY VEERING DUE NORTHWARD. GALE FORCE
GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE EXPECTED, THUS HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE
ISSUED A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH MILDER TEMPS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST FOR SUNDAY.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY
TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876...10 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM
SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM
FRIDAY TO 3 AM SATURDAY.
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