896
FXUS63 KMKX 071918
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
118 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING JUST EAST AND NORTH OF MADISON, THEN SHIFT EAST
TO THE MKE METRO AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
FORECAST.
- MILDER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A COUPLE DAYS IN THE 40S
ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 118 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER VIA WARM ADVECTION HAS ALREADY INCREASED
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. A 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER ND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS SRN WI LATE
TNT, WHILE ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
TRACK ACROSS SRN IA. THE MAIN LEVEL OF CONCERN IS 600-700 MB
WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COULD BECOME
FAIRLY STRONG, BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. IT ALSO IS TRANSIENT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE 3-5 HOURS OF SNOW.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST PLACEMENT FOR A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF
SNOW SHIFTING ESEWD WITH TIME WOULD INITIALLY BE JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF MADISON, REACHING THE MKE METRO AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD END BY 12Z SUN, BUT VERY
LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW (SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED) COULD LINGER A BIT IN THE MORNING.
WILL FORECAST 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TNT FOR ERN WI.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS SRN
CANADA FOR SUN-TUE. THIS WILL BRING SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 40S. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT NWLY ON TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT BUT STILL MILD TEMPS AS MENTIONED. THIS WILL REMAIN A DRY
PERIOD.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 118 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT SRN WI AT
TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY
BUILD SWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK, SHIFTING
INTO THE NRN OHIO VALLEY FOR SAT. 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW ARE FORECAST LATE WED NT-THU NT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 118 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A NARROW NW-SE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF MADISON LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO FAR
ERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL LAST 2-5 HOURS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION WITH MVFR CIGS, AND VSBYS DOWN TO 1SM WITH THE
SNOWFALL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
COULD LINGER THROUGH SUN AM OVER FAR ERN WI, BUT EVENTUALLY
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 118 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
LESSENING NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.4 INCHES MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES
MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TAKING HOLD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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