495
FXUS63 KMKX 080640
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
AND IS SHIFTING EAST TO THE MKE METRO AREA. TRACE TO 1 INCH
TOTAL OF SNOW IS FORECAST.
- MILDER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A COUPLE DAYS IN THE 40S
ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN BAND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
FOND DU LAC TO WAUKESHA TO BURLINGTON AND BE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UNDER THIS BAND SNOWFALL RATES OF
0.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THERE, THERE WILL BE SOME
PICTURESQUE FLAKES UNDER THE BANDING. SINCE THIS IS A QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM, SNOW TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS. AREAS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE AN INCH OF SNOW IF THE FORWARD PROGRESSION
STAGNATES A BIT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 700 MB FGEN WILL MOVE EAST OUT THE
AREA BEFORE DAY BREAK AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT SET UP TODAY WILL
HELP KICK START WAA THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND THEN EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE AS IT IN. THE SFC OCCLUDED
FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT PUSH OF COOLER AIR, BUT ALL IN ALL
THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MOISTURE IS JUST TOO LOW IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS TO EVEN SQUEEZE
OUT FLURRIES. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR SNOW, LOOKING FURTHER NORTH OR
SOUTH WILL PROVIDE BETTER RESULTS. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER TIME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE
FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
STARTING TUESDAY. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND PROVIDE ANOTHER GOOD PUSH OF LIFT/PVA THURSDAY. THE
BIG PLAYER HERE WILL BE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME
BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SNOW
THURSDAY SO POPS REMAIN LOW AROUND 10-30%. AS IT STANDS NOW THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST OF MADISON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRY
AND QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN. ADDITIONALLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SOUTH EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AREAS ALONG A LINE AND EAST FROM FOND DU LAC TO
WAUKESHA TO BURLINGTON WILL SEE THE REST OF THE SNOW FOR THE
EARLY MORNING. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. CEILINGS AROUND 6 TO 2 KFT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE AROUND 1-4 SM. FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS THE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY, SKIES WILL
ATTEMPT TO CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WHEN THE SNOW
ENDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME DUE SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES IS SLOWLY MOVING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ONTARIO CONTINUES EAST, A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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