401
FXUS63 KMKX 081208
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
608 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A COUPLE DAYS IN THE 40S
ARE FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (20 TO 30 PERCENT) LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 609 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TODAY, WITH
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TAPERING OFF AROUND
SUNRISE. EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BRING IN A WARMER
AIRMASS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. HIGHS IN THE
MID-30S ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WHILE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN BAND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
FOND DU LAC TO WAUKESHA TO BURLINGTON AND BE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UNDER THIS BAND SNOWFALL RATES OF
0.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THERE, THERE WILL BE SOME
PICTURESQUE FLAKES UNDER THE BANDING. SINCE THIS IS A QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM, SNOW TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS. AREAS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE AN INCH OF SNOW IF THE FORWARD PROGRESSION
STAGNATES A BIT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 700 MB FGEN WILL MOVE EAST OUT THE
AREA BEFORE DAY BREAK AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT SET UP TODAY WILL
HELP KICK START WAA THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND THEN EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE AS IT IN. THE SFC OCCLUDED
FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT PUSH OF COOLER AIR, BUT ALL IN ALL
THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MOISTURE IS JUST TOO LOW IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS TO EVEN SQUEEZE
OUT FLURRIES. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR SNOW, LOOKING FURTHER NORTH OR
SOUTH WILL PROVIDE BETTER RESULTS. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER TIME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE
FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
STARTING TUESDAY. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND PROVIDE ANOTHER GOOD PUSH OF LIFT/PVA THURSDAY. THE
BIG PLAYER HERE WILL BE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME
BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SNOW
THURSDAY SO POPS REMAIN LOW AROUND 10-30%. AS IT STANDS NOW THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST OF MADISON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRY
AND QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN. ADDITIONALLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 609 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING UNDER ESE WINDS AND ARE BRINGING
OCCASIONAL DROPS IN CEILINGS TO AROUND 1000 FT INLAND, AND
CONSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT LAKE MICHIGAN TERMINALS.
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO LIFT TO MVFR AT 2500-3000 FT BY MIDDAY
AND END ACROSS ENW/MSN AS WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MKE AND
SBM, AND PERHAPS AS FAR INLAND AS UES, THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO
VFR BY MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
PUSH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BACK OUT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES IS SLOWLY MOVING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ONTARIO CONTINUES EAST, A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...10 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
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