411
FXUS63 KMKX 250550
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
- A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND SOME LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO BREAK APART AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND ALSO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WED NT.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN WI
MAY BE BROAD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WI. THUS WE ARE CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE DELLS TO WEST BEND AND NORTH. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO
THIS WOULD BE A FLURRY SITUATION AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THERE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS WI FRI EVENING. AHEAD OF THAT LOW, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 50S. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A SWATH OF SNOW TRACKING ACROSS
SD, SRN MN, AND SRN WI ON SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL BE ALONG
850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH HIGH RH, STEMMING FROM MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET. THE GFS SHOWS A LIGHTER AND NARROWER AXIS OF
PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH HINTS THAT THIS SWATH LOCATION MIGHT
BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO THE TIME OF
ARRIVAL.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM IOWA.
THE CHANCE FOR THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AND THE OVERALL PATTERN SEEMS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE SNOW TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF WI RATHER THAN
RIGHT OVER US.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SKIES CLEARED QUICKLY IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND
AND WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND 3 AM. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT AND SOME FLURRIES SHOULD SPREAD IN
RIGHT BEHIND THAT FRONT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 HAVE A
LOWER CHANCE OF BKN CIGS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AROUND 6 HOURS. DRIER AIR AND BETTER MIXING WILL HELP BREAK
APART THE CLOUDS MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WED NT
PERIOD.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A 29.5
INCH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS UNTIL AT
LEAST MID MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT,
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO GET EXTENDED.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.3 INCHES OVER SASKATCHEWAN DEEPENS
TO 29.1 INCHES OVER ONTARIO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
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