499
FXUS63 KMKX 251854
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1254 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
- A SWATH OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1254 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CLOUDS HAVE MAINLY CLEARED OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE (~20%)
OF SNOW NORTH OF I-94 WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TOMORROW, AS THE
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED AT A FEW FLURRIES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THOUGH, GIVEN DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION AT TIMES
ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS REACHING 40
MOST PLACES.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1254 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO COMBINE WITH THE MILD
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S MOST PLACES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING, RESULTING
IN TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
AROUND 700 MB, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
SNOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THE QUICK MOVING TROUGH. THESE
SITUATIONS ARE OFTEN TRICKY TO PINPOINT WHERE THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL SET UP, WITH NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 1-2" OF SNOW LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SWATH OF HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY BY
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE/WED,
THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE AREA.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1254 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
JUST A COUPLE LINGERING MVFR OBS OUT THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS CLOUDS CONTINUE DECREASE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF I-94
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAY ONLY
END UP SEEING FLURRIES IN THE NORTH OUT OF THIS ONE. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY STAY VFR AS WELL, DROPPING TO THE 5-7 KFT RANGE
MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW MORNING
WILL INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1254 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PICK
UP LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH A FEW GALES NOT OF QUESTION ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL NOON
WEDNESDAY.
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