007
FXUS63 KMKX 262345 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
545 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
- AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED, NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND WILL SET
UP.
UPDATE
ISSUED 545 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1257 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS IN THE AREA. INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LOW TEMPS QUITE A BIT MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.
MUCH MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO
THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO COMBINE WITH THE
MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S MOST PLACES. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED BY A COUPLE 60
DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING, RESULTING IN TEMPS
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1257 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB ON SATURDAY,
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW EAST/WEST BAND OF SNOW
WITHIN THE BASE OF A QUICK MOVING TROUGH. THESE SITUATIONS ARE
OFTEN TRICKY TO PINPOINT WHERE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SET
UP, WITH NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS BAND ANYWHERE FROM THE WI/IL
BORDER TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. IT'S LOOKING LIKE A QUICK
1-3" OF SNOW LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEREVER THE
BAND SETS UP ON SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THAT SAID, THE LATEST ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT, SO THIS IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, LIKELY RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE MONDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 30S MOST
PLACES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY BY
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
TUESDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 545 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
EARLIER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS, SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z FRIDAY EVENING, SO EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WNW WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UNTIL AROUND 06Z. CLOUDS WITH
BASES BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000FT ARE PROBABLE JUST BEHIND THIS
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1257 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY EASE
OVERNIGHT UNDER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE STILL
LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL
THOUGH, FORECAST GUSTS ARE TOO BORDERLINE FOR A GALE WATCH AT
THIS POINT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE ZONES FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AN A STRONG APPROACHING
HIGH.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
FRIDAY TO 2 AM SATURDAY.
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