645
FXUS63 KMKX 272019
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
219 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEST TO EAST BAND OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH NARROW SWATH
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF WI DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
BAND OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SET UP REMAINS AS TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT.
- PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGHS
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 217 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
MILD TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SUB
990MB TREKS ACROSS ONTARIO. EXPECT BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO 20S.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT-TERM IS THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED BAND
OF SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF WI LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS AGREEMENT
THAT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ALIGNING WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH, BAND OF STRONG 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS, AND EDGE OF THE 850MB WAA LIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED POP CHANCES TO OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE BELOW 0C AND SATURATED THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN SUPPORTING SNOW WITH
SLR RANGING FROM 13:1 UP TO 19:1. GIVEN THE MEAN QPF VALUES (12Z
HREF) RANGING FROM AROUND 0.1" UP TO AROUND 0.25" WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES SNOW. GIVEN THE MAIN DRIVER OF THIS SNOW BAND IS
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND TYPICALLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
OVERPERFORM, EXPECT TO SEE A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF GREATER
THAN 0.25" AND SNOW TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE FOR A WEST TO EAST BAND OF SNOW TO
DEVELOP AND IMPACT SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE
MAIN HURDLE REMAINS WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND WILL EVENTUALLY
SETUP. THE MORNING CAMS SUCH AS HRRR, NAM NEST AND RAP HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THIS BAND FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL WI, WHILE OTHER
MODELS SUCH AS THE NSSL, GFS, AIGFS, ECMWF AND CMC HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THE BAND ACROSS THE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF
THE CWA. SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW BAND LOCATION LIES WITH THE
EVOLVING NATURE OF THE FORCING AND RUN TO RUN VARIANCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS.
OVERALL, TAKING A SLOWER APPROACH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN IT COMES TO
HEADLINES, BUT DO EXPECT A SWATH OF 3"+ OF SNOW WITH HIGHER SNOW
RATES TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
HEADLINE. JUST DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL SET UP AS IF A 10-20 MILE SHIFT WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AND A DUSTING.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BRISK CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 217 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
BACK END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOOKING AT HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WI. GIVEN THIS PATTERN
AND TREND, HAVE CUT BACK ON THE POP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP ANY CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH MORE INTO IL
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING REMAINS SITUATED.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SKIRT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WAA GRADUALLY BUILD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS UNDER THE UPPER-
LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT GIVEN THE ACTIVE PATTERN AND RUN TO RUN VARIANCE, WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHERWISE MIDWEEK THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HINT A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO TRAVERSE THE AREA EVERY OTHER DAY. HOWEVER, MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES, BUT NONETHELESS THERE
WILL BE INCREASE POP CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 217 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS GIVE WAY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS AND LOWER CEILINGS ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A
WEST TO EAST BAND OF SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND IMPACT
SOUTHERN WI WITH A SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AND A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE. OVERALL STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND WILL SET UP AS THE LATEST TRENDS LEAN THE
BAND SHIFTING NORTH, BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT IT SETTING UP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA AND IMPACTING THE BULK OF SOUTHERN WI
TERMINALS. NONETHELESS, WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW AND THE LOWEST CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH THE
HEAVIEST BAND AND HIGHER SNOW RATES OF +0.5"/HR AT TIMES. LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS
OFF AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 217 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT MORE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOSE TO THE LOW EXPECT STRONGEST GUSTS TO
DEVELOP WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LINGERING UNTIL AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS
TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY
MONDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...6 PM FRIDAY TO 2
AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 2 AM
SATURDAY.
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