905
FXUS63 KMKX 280605
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEST TO EAST SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND EXCEEDING 3
INCHES REMAINS LIKELY, BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AREA.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1204 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD MORNING AND THEN VEER NORTH DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE SLOWER TO DROP SINCE THE ARCTIC AIR IS TAKING ITS TIME, BUT
LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST
AREAS.
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM THE WEST FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS A LATER ARRIVAL TIME
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STEADY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED IN MADISON
UNTIL AROUND NOON. DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT SNOWFALL
REACHING THE GROUND AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES. ONCE SATURATION
OCCURS, SNOW SHOULD LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
AN EAST-WEST BAND OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES (POTENTIAL OF BRIEF
1 INCH PER HOUR AND IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94 AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL TRACK.
SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS FROM CENTRAL IL TO NORTHERN WI, WEAK
VORTICITY ADVECTION, AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
IS COMING TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND
THIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE
FORCING IS NOT PERFECTLY ORGANIZED/STACKED, BUT SHOULD ALIGN
ENOUGH TO GIVE EVERYONE AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW. THE FOCUSED
BAND OF SNOW, WHEREVER IT LANDS, WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE 00Z HREF IS SHOWING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THAN THE 12Z RUN.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE, EVEN AS THE SNOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, WITH A DECENT PUSH OF DRY, ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR FRONTOGENESIS TO OVERRIDE,
THUS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT MAY BE DEVELOPING. THE NAM INITIALIZED
WITH ITS PRECIP SHIELD TOO FAR NORTH AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING TOO FAR NORTH AT THIS MOMENT AS WELL. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON TRENDS AND SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERALL, A 3
INCH SNOWFALL IN 6 HOURS DOES NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY, BUT IF
THERE ARE 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FOR A COUPLE HOURS,
THEN A SMALL AREA MAY NEED ONE.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL START TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, AND THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY HELP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP.
THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND SHOULD NOT BE STRONG DUE TO MINIMAL
TEMP DIFF BETWEEN AIR AND LAKE, BUT NEVERTHELESS IT MAY BRUSH
THE SHORELINE OF SOUTHEAST WI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SAT NT
SHOULD RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1204 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINISH BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY, SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING WINDS TO RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND WINDS INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS ONTARIO, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AS LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES ACROSS THE
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT TO BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH EJECTING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, ALLOWING FOR A REGION OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIAL DEVELOPS FOR WAA ALOFT
TO BRING IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, WITH SNOW TOWARDS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
IF PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN FRONT AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH AS CURRENTLY PORTRAYED ON THE MAJOR
MODELS, SURFACE WAA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR
40 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
ALLOWING MOST REGIONS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS EASTWARD AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY, SOME RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF COAST STATES MAY ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES, GENERAL LIFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (20 TO 30%
CHANCE). AS CYCLOGENESIS COMPLETES AND THE RESULTANT LOW
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD, MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (50-60%). WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD,
EXPECTING PRIMARILY RAIN WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN TOWARD
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIMING AND INTENSITY REMAINS IN QUESTION ACROSS MODELS, AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW MAY PHASE WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW AND INTENSIFY IT AT VARIOUS POINTS IN ITS DEVELOPMENT.
GENERAL POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS PERIOD
PRIMARILY BEING FOCUSED ON RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1204 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD MORNING AND THEN VEER NORTH DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM THE WEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS A LATER ARRIVAL TIME THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RATES AND CEILINGS, BUT
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH STEADY SNOW
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE DURING THE SNOW.
AN EAST-WEST BAND OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES (POTENTIAL OF BRIEF
1 INCH PER HOUR AND IFR CONDITIONS) MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF
I-94 AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL
TRACK.
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MAY BRUSH THE SHORELINE OF SOUTHEAST WI
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1204 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES OVER ONTARIO THIS
EVENING DRAGGED A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT DOWN THE LAKE. WESTERLY GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 40 KT DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, BUT GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH SO THE END TIME
OF 08Z STILL LOOKS OK. THEN THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
LINGERING UNTIL AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO AROUND 30.7
INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS
TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY
MONDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
WI ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AROUND 08Z/2AM.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 2 AM
SATURDAY.
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