761
FXUS63 KMKX 012325
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
525 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
WHEN THE WARMTH PEAKS (LIKELY FRIDAY).
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 525 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER FAR ERN WI INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO THIN. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND
FOR MON AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN ON MON, WHICH WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S AWAY
FROM LAKE MI.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEARLY
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S (WARMEST NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY FLOW). WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW POCKETS DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS AFTERNOON'S SUNSHINE HAS REMOVED NEARLY ALL
OF OUR SNOW DEPTH ALREADY (THUS REMOVING 1 INGREDIENT FOR PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING).
A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE KICKS IN POST DAWN MONDAY
MORNING, WORKING WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER AND AMPLE MORNING
SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S (PERHAPS
UPPER 30S BY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE). THE NEXT MENTIONABLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WE'LL COVER IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD,
WITH ONLY THE FIRST HAVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX IN, AND
THE REST BEING RAIN ONLY (WITH SOME SLIGHT THUNDER POTENTIAL) AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE TO 15-20+ DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.
A DEVELOPING COLORADO LOW WORKS WITH THE DEPARTED POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE (OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS) TO DRIVE A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH WEAKER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HALTING
IT'S NORTHWARD ADVANCE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME 15-30% PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW OR MIX TO FALL
BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN-ONLY (LIKELY NO LATER THAN MID
MORNING). 35-55% RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
TUESDAY MORNING, TAPERING DOWN INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
ILLINOIS TOWARDS MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD, RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL MID-WEEK RAIN CHANCES. A MUCH DEEPER AND MORE
ORGANIZED COLORADO LOW IS THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK,
LIKELY WITH MUCH STRONGER AND TRULY SURFACE-BASED WAA, WITH THE
WARMTH PEAKING ON FRIDAY (GOOD POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REACH OR
EXCEED THE 60-DEGREE MARK IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI). THOUGH MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM, THE GENERAL AVERAGE
/ CONSENSUS IS MORE OR LESS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WITH THE WAA
PHASE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY / FRIDAY NIGHT. CAA
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE A SLIGHT DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH ENSEMBLE IQRS REMAIN
NOTICEABLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WARMING MAY THEN RESUME INTO
SUNDAY (WITH THE FAVORED SOLUTION BEING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA), LIKELY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 525 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SCT-BKN035 STRATOCUMULUS OVER ERN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TNT INTO MON EVENING.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6
INCHES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON MONDAY, IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGH SHIFTING WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES
MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LINGER LATER INTO THE WEEK.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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