683
FXUS63 KMKX 051229 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
629 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MILWAUKEE COUNTY
AND THE COUNTIES ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER. THE DENSE FOG MAY
SPREAD NORTH THIS MORNING, AND MAY LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
- LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA (20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES).
- MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. A FEW
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- VERY MILD FRIDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 629 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR
MILWAUKEE COUNTY AND THE COUNTIES ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER.
THE DENSE FOG MAY SPREAD NORTH THIS MORNING INTO THE NEXT TIER
OF COUNTIES, SO THESE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO THE ADVISORY AT
SOME POINT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE DENSE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CURRENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AS WINDS REMAIN VERY
LIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVEL PROFILES LINGER IN AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT AS WELL. THE FOG SHOULD
LINGER UNTIL THE ORGANIZED RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE LINGERING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
INTO THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN BY MIDDAY.
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO AROUND 50
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING IN CONTINUED
LOW STRATUS AND FOG. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO FAR SOUTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN, VISIBILITIES IN THE 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE
CATEGORIES (DENSE FOG) HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE. AREAS
TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE CORE OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE CERTAINLY
SEEN DENSE FOG DEVELOP, BUT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE CORE AND MAINLY ADVECTION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN DRIVEN,
THINKING ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. STILL,
WITH VERY LOW STRATUS, AND DEW POINTS NEAR THE TEMPERATURES,
COULD STILL SEE STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY DAYBREAK,
PRIMARILY IN OZAUKEE TO WAUKESHA TO ROCK COUNTIES SOUTH AND
EASTWARD.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS IN
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN A SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
OVERNIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN, PATCHY DENSE FOG
BECOMES LIKELY AGAIN. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY MORNING, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (80-100% CHANCES). AS THIS ROUND OF STORMS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO MIDDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 750-1000
J/KG RANGE. WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE, THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS STIFF
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. IF ANY SUNLIGHT IS ABLE TO ENHANCE THE
WARMING, THIS CAPPING WHITTLES AWAY QUICKLY AND CREATES A
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM. REGARDLESS OF CAPPING, MUCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG, 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEGREES C/KM, BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT, AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 700 MB WILL ALL
ALLOW FOR HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO
BECOME SURFACE BASED WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND
DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY MUCH MORE ISOLATED.
STORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL THEN FORM THE BASIS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCAPE WILL BE LOWER (CURRENTLY PROGGED AT 500-750 J/KG), BUT
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 50-60 KT AND A LLJ AS HIGH AS 60 KT
NOSES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH THE FRONT. IN OTHER
WORDS, DYNAMIC FORCING IS GREAT, WHILE INSTABILITY MAY PREVENT
STORMS FROM TAPPING INTO THE DYNAMICS AND BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE.
COLD FRONT COMPLETES ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN AND STORMS INTO
THIS PERIOD. LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW
30S. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO THE HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY TO LAKE
MICHIGAN AS A STRONG OFFSHORE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED. WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, BRINGING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S, AND PERHAPS A FEW PLACES NEARING 70
DEGREES.
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT, AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON STRENGTH AND THEREFORE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
GFS PREFERS A FASTER, STRONGER SOLUTION ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA,
DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EURO AND CANADIAN PREFER A WEAKER SOLUTION,
PHASING WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MONTANA ROCKIES AND ALLOWING
IT TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. WITH THESE SOLUTIONS AT PLAY, GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE EURO
AND CANADIAN HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT NBM POPS IN FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (70% OR HIGHER) IN TUESDAY NIGHT
PRECIPITATION. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM,
THE BACK SIDE MAY SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY STILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER SOLUTIONS PREVAIL, AS WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OUT (30-40% CHANCES).
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST IN SOME CAPACITY ON THURSDAY, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THEREFORE, CONTINUED
WITH NBM OUTPUT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 629 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
CONTINUES UNTIL MIDDAY FOR THE MILWAUKEE, KENOSHA AND
JANESVILLE TERMINALS, AND FOR AREAS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.
THE DENSE FOG MAY SPREAD NORTH THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS REACH
MADISON AND WAUKESHA. SHEBOYGAN MAY SEE LIGHT FOG BUT SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT THERE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE DENSE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CURRENT AREAS AND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AS
WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS LINGER. FOG OF
1 TO 2 MILES, AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG, MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT AS WELL. THE FOG SHOULD
LINGER UNTIL THE ORGANIZED RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LOW CEILINGS OF 200 TO 500 FEET AGL WILL LINGER
TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
LINGER IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN BY MIDDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KENOSHA
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO 1 TO 2 MILES WITH THE MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN AND SOME STORMS DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 629 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO TODAY, WHILE MARINE DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 1 NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
QUICKLY MOVING INTO QUEBEC BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFTING WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING AND PASSING LOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
WIZ072 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6
AM FRIDAY.
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