144
FXUS63 KMKX 061225
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
625 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 625 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
NOSE OF A SWLY 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS LEADING THE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO SRN WI THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL THEN REACH WEST
CENTRAL WI BY 06Z SAT WITH ITS UPPER WAVE A BIT FARTHER
UPSTREAM. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR SRN WI THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THE
EVENING. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1.3 INCHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ON A FROZEN GROUND WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AS THE ELEVATED WARM, MOIST ADVECTION SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
ONGOING OR NEW MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING AND WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO 50-60 KTS. MUCAPE WILL
INCREASE TO 500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH STRONG LOW TO DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PRESENT. A QLCS IS EXPECTED AND SHOWN BY CAMS WITH
SOME CAMS MAINTAINING CONVECTION TO THE LAKE. THE MAIN WINDOW
WOULD RANGE FROM 04Z-09Z WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS THE MAIN HAZARDS, VIA MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT OR
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE
NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO, THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI AFTER 12Z SAT.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1211 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD, SO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM, AS NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS BEFORE THEN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK FRI
MORNING, SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE AREA. THERE WON'T BE MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GO
ALONG ONLY MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL BE SOLID
THOUGH AND THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW, SO STILL
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH THIS FIRST ROUND.
LATEST MODELS VARY A BIT ON WHEN THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL
EXIT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AN EVENTUAL LULL IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP THOUGH FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVENING. THE NEXT
ROUND OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE IN THE WEST AROUND 8-11 PM PER LATEST MESO MODELS. THIS
ROUND WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY AND EVEN BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH, THOUGH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ALOFT. STILL, THE
NOT OUT THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME SURFACE BASED STORMS, WITH WIND
AN A TORNADO OR TWO THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS. WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED BY SOME HAIL AS WELL THOUGH, AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORM ARE
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM FRI NIGHT,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF
0.75" TO 1.25" AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. DUE TO THE
FROZEN GROUND, THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STANDING WATER IN DITCHES
AND LOW LYING ROADS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING.
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR TODAY, GIVEN THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALSO, CLOUDS AND
PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN. STILL WILL
BE A MILD DAY FOR EARLY MARCH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT, AS
THE COLD FRONT WON'T CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING. FALLING TEMPS ARE THEN LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1211 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVING FOR MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY
RETURNING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 625 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
CIGS WELL BELOW 1 KFT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL FOG
AND SHOWERS/STORMS. THE CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER
VSBYS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING VIA SWLY LLJ OF
40 KT THEN INCREASING TO 50 KTS OR GREATER TNT. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE, LATE TONIGHT.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1211 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, QUICKLY MOVING
INTO QUEBEC BY SATURDAY EVENING. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFTING WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING AND PASSING LOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ068-
WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-
LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
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