864
FXUS63 KMKX 070451
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1051 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
- RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS RAIN EXITS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SOME WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1051 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THAN WITH THE ROUND OF STORMS EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONALLY,
BULK WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG TO GO ALONG WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH REMAINING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORMS. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY AND SOLID LAPSE RATES,
STORMS UPSTREAM ARE STRUGGLING TO GET VERY TALL THIS EVENING,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LIMITING THE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE
LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING TORNADO
AND WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE UPCOMING STORMS. THAT SAID, THIS IS
A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT, SO THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THE STORMS TO TAP SOME OF THESE HIGHER
WINDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A BRIEF SPIN UP TOO IF THE
STORMS CAN GET MORE ORGANIZED AND INTRODUCE A QLCS TORNADO
THREAT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO
THE EAST BY AROUND 3-4 AM TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH
BREEZY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COMBINE WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR A QUICK RECOVERY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH OR HIT THE 60 DEGREE MARK MOST
PLACES.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1051 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
EVEN MILDER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AS THE SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW WINDS UP EAST OF THE AREA AND COLDER AIR
WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOLER ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH, WITH LATEST MODELS SUGGESTING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH
AND RESULTANT PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1051 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A BRIEF HOLE IN THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES THIS EVENING, ASIDE
FROM SOME IFR CLOUDS AND LINGERING FOG IN THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (40-50KT) ALOFT
(2,000 FT AGL) WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INTO TONIGHT.
FROM 10 PM TO 4 AM CST THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE). CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DECLINE TO
IFR LEVELS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY, WITH PROB30 FOR RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS VEER
WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SHEPPARD/DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1051 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DEEPENING TO 29.5 INCHES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE LAKE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS AND MILDER TEMPS WILL ALSO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
MARINE FOG TO DEVELOP AT TIMES THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THUS A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PERIODIC DROPS IN VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES. THE
LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER OUT THE MARINE FOG BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP AND
TRACK NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR GALES SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AS BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY LINGER. ANOTHER ADVISORY
IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KNOTS.
SHEPPARD/DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL NOON
SATURDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM
SATURDAY.
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