036
FXUS63 KMKX 081113
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
613 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
- INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES (50-90%) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN A
WINTRY MIX FOR WEDNESDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
980 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT
WITH VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1100 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
TODAY (SUNDAY) THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER, BUT GRADUALLY SEE IT PUSH WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH'S
SUBSIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY ACCOMPANYING CLEARER CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE THE LOW- LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREADING IN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL CLIPPERS AND SURFACE LOWS IS EXPECTED TO TREK ACROSS
ONTARIO THIS MORNING PLACING SOUTHERN WI FIRMLY WITHIN ITS WARM
SECTOR BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. MAINLY WILL JUST
BE A WIND SHIFT AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE TRENDS OF HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 60S TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO CREEP INTO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. MILDER TEMPS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MONDAY IS NOT LOOKING TOO DISSIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO ADVECT EVEN WARMER TEMPS INTO
SOUTHERN WI. CONTINUE TO SEE MODELS PING MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGH MONDAY. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING A LOCATION OR TWO EVEN
APPROACH 70F. HOWEVER, THIS TASTE OF WARMER DAYS TO COME WILL BE
BRIEF AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WI LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF THE COLDER
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TEMPS AS THERE COULD
BE A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST
TRENDS (00Z NAM AND NAMNEST) CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLD FRONT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER MORE INTO IL ALTER OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHERN WI ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S TO MID TO UPPER 30S MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1100 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS IL FOR TUESDAY,
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR INCREASED POP CHANCES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. WAA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
THIS STALLED FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES TO
NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, IT LOOKS TO LATCH TO THIS STALL
BOUNDARY AND FOLLOW IT THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS CONTINUING TO SEE POP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MILDER/ABOVE FREEZING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND
SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY RAIN, BUT AS CAA ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE
LOW TAKE FIRMER HOLD AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF WI, COULD SEE
RAIN TURN MORE WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN) THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT
WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER, MODEL RUNS ON FRIDAY FAVORED THIS TROUGH REMAINING
SEPARATE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, BUT SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE TWO
SYSTEMS PHASING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST REGION. GIVEN THIS PHASING TREND, IT DOES LEND SOME WAY
TO A BIT MORE UNCERTATINY AS PHASING SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT ARE
KNOWN TO TREND TOWARD A WEAKER SYSTEM AS WELL AS SHIFT IT MORE
SOUTHWARD WITH LATER RUNS. SO WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES STILL FAVOR THE INCREASED POPS CHANCES AND LOW
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER, I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERN SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW
IN THE COMING DAYS, WHICH MAY ULTIMATELY IMPACT OUR POP CHANCES
AS WELL AS PRECIP TYPE.
REGARDLESS THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE LATEST
TRENDS KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA, STILL COULD BE
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
LLWS THIS MORNING VIA A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LLWS TNT. OTHERWISE CIGS UNDER 1 KFT OVER FAR
SE WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE A LITTLE LATER THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL TODAY INTO MONDAY.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1100 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES WILL TREK ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. WITH EACH PASSING LOW EXPECT PERIODS
OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHERN WI NEARSHORES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OPEN WATERS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR GALES WITH THE
PASSING OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THEN WILL
SEE THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE INTO
MONDAY EVENING TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY INTO TUESDAY, BUT
STILL BREEZY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR LATER TUESDAY AS A LOW LIFTS UP FROM THE PLAINS AND SKIRTS
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL
1 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
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